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A note on the heterogenous economic effects of COVID-19 on GDP via the sectoral structure

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Mućk

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis)

  • Michał Rubaszek

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis)

  • Karol Szafranek

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis)

Abstract

This article shows how the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the aggregate activity depends on the sectoral structure of the economy. We show that in a prolonged lockdown scenario, in which we assume that the response of individual sectors is homogenous across countries, the decline in GDP across countries is heterogeneous and can vary in a substantial way purely due to the diverse sectoral structure of economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Mućk & Michał Rubaszek & Karol Szafranek, 2021. "A note on the heterogenous economic effects of COVID-19 on GDP via the sectoral structure," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 253-266.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:52:y:2021:i:3:p:253-266
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    File URL: https://bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2021/03/bik_03_2021_03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    3. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    4. Tase, Manjola, 2019. "Sectoral dynamics and business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 60-63.
    5. Moro, Alessio & Tanaka, Satoshi, 2019. "Sectoral shocks and home substitution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 57-60.
    6. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Responses of Consumption and Prices in Japan to the COVID-19 Crisis and the Tohoku Earthquake," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 020, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    7. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    8. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    9. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bukalska Elżbieta & Skibińska-Fabrowska Ilona, 2023. "Corporate Investment in Bank-Dependent Companies in Crisis Time," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 10(57), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; production structure; value added;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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