Visegrad trust in the European Central Bank: common and country specific determinants 2005–2018

This is an analysis of the determinants of trust in the ECB, from 2005 to 2018, using twice yearly Eurobarometer surveys of a thousand citizens in each of the four Visegrad states. A probit model links their opinions to their socio-demographic positions, political views, and the macroeconomic situations they faced. Slovakia joined the Eurozone in 2005, but the other Visegrad states, although committed to eventual membership, are unlikely to join in the foreseeable future. But because the ECB’s decisions have a critical influence on their economies, their trust in it is of significant importance. The four countries’ views have varied over time, with the financial crisis of 2007–2008 an important watershed. Our results show that the ECB is trusted more by politically left-oriented Hungarians and Poles, and right-oriented Czechs and Slovaks. In the Czech Republic, living in a village or rural location increases trust. But in the other countries the reverse holds true. Trust increases the more people know of the ECB. It is greater for married respondents, for those with more positive views of the economic outlook and greater trust in the EU. Surprisingly the importance of macroeconomic influences differs considerably across both citizens and states. Taking all country comparisons together, Slovakia and the Czech Republic exhibit significantly similar results. But there is much less homogeneity in other pairwise comparisons.