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What determines bank CDS spreads? Evidence from European and US banks

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  • Drago, Danilo
  • Tommaso, Caterina Di
  • Thornton, John

Abstract

We examine the determinants of CDS spreads for a sample of European and US banks. The key balance sheet determinants are leverage, asset quality, funding stability, and bank size, and the key market determinants are equity returns, the term structure of interest rates and bank-specific and host country sovereign credit risk. Our results would appear to confirm the applicability of Merton (1974)-type models extended to include market variables to the understanding of bank credit risk.

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  • Drago, Danilo & Tommaso, Caterina Di & Thornton, John, 2017. "What determines bank CDS spreads? Evidence from European and US banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:22:y:2017:i:c:p:140-145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.12.035
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    Cited by:

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    2. Benbouzid, Nadia & Leonida, Leone & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2018. "The non-monotonic impact of bank size on their default swap spreads: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    3. Soenen, Nicolas & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2022. "ECB monetary policy and bank default risk☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Foglia, Matteo & Di Tommaso, Caterina & Wang, Gang-Jin & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2024. "Interconnectedness between stock and credit markets: The role of European G-SIBs in a multilayer perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar & Partal-Ureña, Antonio, 2019. "Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 223-240.
    6. Caterina Di Tommaso & John Thornton, 2020. "Do ESG scores effect bank risk taking and value? Evidence from European banks," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 2286-2298, September.
    7. Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado & Purificación Parrado-Martínez & Antonio Partal-Ureña, 2018. "Risk Profile Indicators and Spanish Banks’ Probability of Default from a Regulatory Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    8. Dent, Kieran & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem & Panagiotopoulos, Apostolos, 2021. "Solvency and wholesale funding cost interactions at UK banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Soenen, Nicolas & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2022. "Determinants of European banks’ default risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    10. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Spillover effects in oil-related CDS markets during and after the sub-prime crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Huyugüzel Kışla, Gül & Özlem Önder, A., 2018. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risks: The case of emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-55.
    12. Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2020. "ECB Monetary Policy and Bank Default Risk," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 20/997, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2020. "An alternative approach to predicting bank credit risk in Europe with Google data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    14. Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Ma, Yihong, 2021. "What determines wholesale funding costs of the global systemically important banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Taurai Muvunza & Yong Jiang, 2023. "Determinants and hedging effectiveness of China's sovereign credit default swaps," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2074-2087, April.
    17. George ANTON & Cosmin-Octavian CEPOI & Cătălin-Emilian HUIDUMAC-PETRESCU, 2022. "Estimating Probability of Default for Systemically Important Financial Institutions during Covid-19 Pandemic. Evidence from Europe and USA," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 44-53, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Bank credit risk; Balance sheet variables; Market variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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