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Does trade drive global output growth?

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  • Leon Podkaminer

    (Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
    Wyższa Szkoła Administracji in Bielsko-Biała)

Abstract

Conventional econometric analysis suggests that there has been a longer-term relationship between nominal world output and nominal world exports. The analysis says something about the rules governing adjustments in world output and exports. It appears that GDP plays the first fiddle. Rising world output seems to have pushed up world exports. But rising world exports do not seem to have resulted in positive changes in global GDP. The global growth slowdown, observed since the early 1970s, may have been linked to the steady expansion of global trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Podkaminer, 2014. "Does trade drive global output growth?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(4), pages 311-330.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:45:y:2014:i:4:p:311-330
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    1. Leon Podkaminer, 2021. "Does trade support global output growth? Further evidence on the global trade – global output connection," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(1), pages 23-36.
    2. Leon Podkaminer, 2016. "Has trade been driving global economic growth?," NBP Working Papers 251, Narodowy Bank Polski.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    world income; world trade; world output growth; globalisation; VEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

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