IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lsu/lsuwpp/2003-014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade

Author

Abstract

The share of merchandise output that is internationally traded has significantly increased while tariffs have fallen. However, standard trade models have surprising difficulty linking these two facts. Trade growth slowed in the 1970s as tariffs fell relatively sharply while after the late 1980s trade grew quickly as tariffs fell slowly. This pattern implies that the price-import elasticity has changed over time. Also, tariffs have not fallen enough to generate such a large increase in trade given estimates of this elasticity. Changes in transport costs can resolve both puzzles. I present a vertical specialization trade model with an energy-using transportation sector. In the simulated model, trade growth slows from 1974 to 1985. The oil shocks raised transport costs, offsetting falling tariffs, so the price-import elasticity no longer needs to change. It also generates the observed volume of trade growth since transport costs have fallen over the long run. (Copyright: Elsevier)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Bridgman, 2003. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Departmental Working Papers 2003-014, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2003-014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.lsu.edu/business/economics/files/workingpapers/pap03_14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1997. "The evolving external orientation of manufacturing: a profile of four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Jul), pages 53-81.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    4. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    5. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    6. Ravn, Morten O. & Mazzenga, Elisabetta, 2004. "International business cycles: the quantitative role of transportation costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 645-671, June.
    7. Hélène Erkel‐Rousse & Daniel Mirza, 2002. "Import price elasticities: reconsidering the evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 282-306, May.
    8. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe, "undated". "Trade Theory and Trade Facts," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv129, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    9. David L. Hummels & Dana Rapoport & Kei-Mu Yi, 1998. "Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 79-99.
    10. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 2003. "The Mercantilist Index of Trade Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 627-649, May.
    11. Robert C. Feenstra, 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 31-50, Fall.
    12. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    13. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-577, November.
    14. David L. Hummels & Georg Schaur, 2013. "Time as a Trade Barrier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2935-2959, December.
    15. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Trade costs, firms and productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 917-937, July.
    16. Harrigan, James, 1993. "OECD imports and trade barriers in 1983," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 91-111, August.
    17. Frankel, Ernst G., 1990. "Promoting efficiency in shipping," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 438-448, September.
    18. David Hummels & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2006. "Are Matched Partner Trade Statistics a Usable Measure of Transportation Costs?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-86, February.
    19. James R. Markusen, 2021. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 9, pages 177-186, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    21. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
    22. Tolofari, Sonny R & Button, Kenneth J & Pitfield, David E, 1986. "Shipping Costs and the Controversy over Open Registry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 409-427, June.
    23. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    24. Patrick J. Kehoe & Andrew Atkeson, 1999. "Models of Energy Use: Putty-Putty versus Putty-Clay," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1028-1043, September.
    25. North, Douglass, 1958. "Ocean Freight Rates and Economic Development 1730-1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 537-555, December.
    26. Waters, W G, II, 1970. "Transport Costs, Tariffs, and the Pattern of Industrial Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 1013-1020, December.
    27. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    28. Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson, 1999. "Explaining Armington: What Determines Substitutability Between Home and Foreign Goods?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21, February.
    29. Costas Arkolakis, 2010. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1151-1199.
    30. Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 417-427, May.
    31. Lundgren, Nils-Gustav, 1996. "Bulk trade and maritime transport costs : The evolution of global markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 5-32.
    32. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
    33. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    34. Alejandro Micco & Tomas Serebrisky, 2004. "Infrastructure, Competition Regimes and Air Transport Costs: Cross Country Evidence," Research Department Publications 4369, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    35. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September.
    36. Murtishaw, Scott & Schipper, Lee, 2001. "Disaggregated analysis of US energy consumption in the 1990s: evidence of the effects of the internet and rapid economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(15), pages 1335-1356, December.
    37. Donald J. Rousslang & Theodore To, 1993. "Domestic Trade and Transportation Costs as Barriers to International Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 208-221, February.
    38. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "Why Did the Tariff-Growth Correlation Reverse After 1950?," NBER Working Papers 9181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. David Hummels, 2007. "Transportation Costs and International Trade in the Second Era of Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 131-154, Summer.
    40. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    41. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1997. "Models of energy use: putty-putty vs. putty-clay," Staff Report 230, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    42. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    43. Falvey, Rodney E, 1976. "Transport Costs in the Pure Theory of International Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 536-550, September.
    44. Yeats, Alexander J, 1977. "Do International Transport Costs Increase with Fabrication? Some Empirical Evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 458-471, November.
    45. J. M. Finger & A. J. Yeats, 1976. "Effective Protection by Transportation Costs and Tariffs: A Comparison of Magnitudes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(1), pages 169-176.
    46. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    47. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
    48. Micco, Alejandro & Serebrisky, Tomas, 2004. "Infrastructure, competition regimes, and air transport costs: cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3355, The World Bank.
    49. Hummels, David, 2001. "Time As A Trade Barrier," Working papers 28701, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2014. "Global value chains: surveying drivers and measures," Working Paper Series 1739, European Central Bank.
    2. Dalton, John, 2013. "A Theory of Just-in-Time and the Growth in Manufacturing Trade," MPRA Paper 48223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "Market entry and trade weighted import costs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 982-1013, August.
    4. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Hsu, Kai-Wei, 2012. "Reverse globalization: Does high oil price volatility discourage international trade?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1634-1643.
    5. Giulia Brancaccio & Myrto Kalouptsidi & Theodore Papageorgiou, 2023. "The impact of oil prices on world trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 444-463, May.
    6. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
    7. Shiu-Sheng Chen and Kai-Wei Hsu, 2013. "Oil Price Volatility and Bilateral Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    8. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2014. "Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 311-325.
    9. Johnson, Robert C. & Moxnes, Andreas, 2023. "GVCs and trade elasticities with multistage production," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2011. "Oil Shocks through International Transport Costs: Evidence from U.S. Business Cycles," Working Papers 1105, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    11. Zymek, Robert, 2015. "Factor proportions and the growth of world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-53.
    12. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "International Supply Chains And The Volatility Of Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 2110-2124, October.
    14. Rubini, Loris, 2009. "Innovation and the Elasticity of Trade Volumes to Tariff Reductions," MPRA Paper 21484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:pcz:alspcz:v:4:y:2010:i:1:p:186-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2012. "Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added over Four Decades," NBER Working Papers 18186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Peter Egger & Sergey Nigai, 2015. "Energy Demand and Trade in General Equilibrium," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(2), pages 191-213, February.
    18. Mariko Klasing & Petros Milionis & Robert Zymek, 2015. "Gravity across Space and Time," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 265, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    19. Wei, Yanfeng, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 20-31.
    20. Rubini, Loris, 2014. "Innovation and the trade elasticity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-46.
    21. Takeshi Yagihashi & David D. Selover, 2017. "How Do the Trans-Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2097-2124, October.
    22. George Alessandria, 2009. "Do Falling Iceberg Costs Account for US Export Growth?," 2009 Meeting Papers 510, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
    2. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    4. Benjamin Bridgman, 2008. "Energy Prices and the Expansion of World Trade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 904-916, October.
    5. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2011. "Gravity, trade integration, and heterogeneity across industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 206-221.
    6. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2008. "International Trade Integration: A Disaggregated Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    8. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "Market entry and trade weighted import costs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(3), pages 982-1013, August.
    9. Mika Saito, 2004. "Armington elasticities in intermediate inputs trade: a problem in using multilateral trade data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 1097-1117, November.
    10. Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag, 2014. "Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 311-325.
    11. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    12. Michelle Connolly & Kei-Mu Yi, 2015. "How Much of South Korea's Growth Miracle Can Be Explained by Trade Policy?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 188-221, October.
    13. Philip Sauré, 2012. "Bounded Love of Variety and Patterns of Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 645-674, September.
    14. Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "The International Elasticity Puzzle," Working Papers 08-30, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "The Effects of Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mariko Klasing & Petros Milionis & Robert Zymek, 2015. "Gravity across Space and Time," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 265, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    17. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
    18. Auer, Raphael A., 2017. "Product heterogeneity, cross-country taste differences, and the growth of world trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-27.
    19. Christophe Gouel & Nina Kousnetzoff & Hassan Salman, 2008. "Commerce international et transports : tendances du passe et prospective 2020," Working Papers 2008-28, CEPII research center.
    20. Raphael A. Auer, 2010. "Consumer Heterogeneity and the Impact of Trade Liberalization: How Representative is the Representative Agent Framework?," Working Papers 2010-13, Swiss National Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2003-014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delsuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.