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Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks

Author

Listed:
  • Kaifeng Bi

    (Huawei Cloud)

  • Lingxi Xie

    (Huawei Cloud)

  • Hengheng Zhang

    (Huawei Cloud)

  • Xin Chen

    (Huawei Cloud)

  • Xiaotao Gu

    (Huawei Cloud)

  • Qi Tian

    (Huawei Cloud)

Abstract

Weather forecasting is important for science and society. At present, the most accurate forecast system is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) method, which represents atmospheric states as discretized grids and numerically solves partial differential equations that describe the transition between those states1. However, this procedure is computationally expensive. Recently, artificial-intelligence-based methods2 have shown potential in accelerating weather forecasting by orders of magnitude, but the forecast accuracy is still significantly lower than that of NWP methods. Here we introduce an artificial-intelligence-based method for accurate, medium-range global weather forecasting. We show that three-dimensional deep networks equipped with Earth-specific priors are effective at dealing with complex patterns in weather data, and that a hierarchical temporal aggregation strategy reduces accumulation errors in medium-range forecasting. Trained on 39 years of global data, our program, Pangu-Weather, obtains stronger deterministic forecast results on reanalysis data in all tested variables when compared with the world’s best NWP system, the operational integrated forecasting system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)3. Our method also works well with extreme weather forecasts and ensemble forecasts. When initialized with reanalysis data, the accuracy of tracking tropical cyclones is also higher than that of ECMWF-HRES.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaifeng Bi & Lingxi Xie & Hengheng Zhang & Xin Chen & Xiaotao Gu & Qi Tian, 2023. "Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7970), pages 533-538, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:619:y:2023:i:7970:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06185-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06185-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhenjia Chen & Zhenyuan Lin & Ji Yang & Cong Chen & Di Liu & Liuting Shan & Yuanyuan Hu & Tailiang Guo & Huipeng Chen, 2024. "Cross-layer transmission realized by light-emitting memristor for constructing ultra-deep neural network with transfer learning ability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Francesco Carlucci & Francesco Fiorito, 2024. "Simulation of Responsive Envelopes in Current and Future Climate Scenarios: A New Interactive Computational Platform for Energy Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Fabian Dvorak & Regina Stumpf & Sebastian Fehrler & Urs Fischbacher, 2024. "Generative AI Triggers Welfare-Reducing Decisions in Humans," Papers 2401.12773, arXiv.org.
    4. Hang Gao & Chun Shen & Xuesong Wang & Pak-Wai Chan & Kai-Kwong Hon & Jianbing Li, 2024. "Interpretable semi-supervised clustering enables universal detection and intensity assessment of diverse aviation hazardous winds," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Huijun Zhang & Mingjie Zhang & Ran Yi & Yaxin Liu & Qiuzi Han Wen & Xin Meng, 2024. "Growing Importance of Micro-Meteorology in the New Power System: Review, Analysis and Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Cheng Yang & Jun Jia & Ke He & Liang Xue & Chao Jiang & Shuangyu Liu & Bochao Zhao & Ming Wu & Haoyang Cui, 2023. "Comprehensive Analysis and Evaluation of the Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Power Systems: A Survey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-39, July.
    7. Chu, Yinghao & Wang, Yiling & Yang, Dazhi & Chen, Shanlin & Li, Mengying, 2024. "A review of distributed solar forecasting with remote sensing and deep learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    8. Lei Chen & Xiaohui Zhong & Hao Li & Jie Wu & Bo Lu & Deliang Chen & Shang-Ping Xie & Libo Wu & Qingchen Chao & Chensen Lin & Zixin Hu & Yuan Qi, 2024. "A machine learning model that outperforms conventional global subseasonal forecast models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Florian Achermann & Thomas Stastny & Bogdan Danciu & Andrey Kolobov & Jen Jen Chung & Roland Siegwart & Nicholas Lawrance, 2024. "WindSeer: real-time volumetric wind prediction over complex terrain aboard a small uncrewed aerial vehicle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Mattia Cavaiola & Federico Cassola & Davide Sacchetti & Francesco Ferrari & Andrea Mazzino, 2024. "Hybrid AI-enhanced lightning flash prediction in the medium-range forecast horizon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Wang, Tao & Zhou, Hanxu & Fang, Qing & Han, Yanan & Guo, Xingxing & Zhang, Yahui & Qian, Chao & Chen, Hongsheng & Barland, Stéphane & Xiang, Shuiying & Lippi, Gian Luca, 2024. "Reservoir computing-based advance warning of extreme events," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

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