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Global phytoplankton decline over the past century

Author

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  • Daniel G. Boyce

    (Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, B3H 4J1)

  • Marlon R. Lewis

    (Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, B3H 4J1)

  • Boris Worm

    (Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, B3H 4J1)

Abstract

In the oceans, ubiquitous microscopic phototrophs (phytoplankton) account for approximately half the production of organic matter on Earth. Analyses of satellite-derived phytoplankton concentration (available since 1979) have suggested decadal-scale fluctuations linked to climate forcing, but the length of this record is insufficient to resolve longer-term trends. Here we combine available ocean transparency measurements and in situ chlorophyll observations to estimate the time dependence of phytoplankton biomass at local, regional and global scales since 1899. We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of ∼1% of the global median per year. Our analyses further reveal interannual to decadal phytoplankton fluctuations superimposed on long-term trends. These fluctuations are strongly correlated with basin-scale climate indices, whereas long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures. We conclude that global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century; this decline will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystems, geochemical cycling, ocean circulation and fisheries.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel G. Boyce & Marlon R. Lewis & Boris Worm, 2010. "Global phytoplankton decline over the past century," Nature, Nature, vol. 466(7306), pages 591-596, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:466:y:2010:i:7306:d:10.1038_nature09268
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09268
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    1. J Timothy Wootton & Catherine A Pfister, 2012. "Carbon System Measurements and Potential Climatic Drivers at a Site of Rapidly Declining Ocean pH," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Katherine A. Crichton & Jamie D. Wilson & Andy Ridgwell & Flavia Boscolo-Galazzo & Eleanor H. John & Bridget S. Wade & Paul N. Pearson, 2023. "What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean’s twilight zone," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Patara, Lavinia & Vichi, Marcello & Masina, Simona, 2012. "Impacts of natural and anthropogenic climate variations on North Pacific plankton in an Earth System Model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 132-147.
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    5. Moreno Bevilacqua & Alfredo Alegria & Daira Velandia & Emilio Porcu, 2016. "Composite Likelihood Inference for Multivariate Gaussian Random Fields," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 448-469, September.
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    7. Vitul Agarwal & Jonathan Chávez-Casillas & Keisuke Inomura & Colleen B. Mouw, 2024. "Patterns in the temporal complexity of global chlorophyll concentration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Patara, Lavinia & Vichi, Marcello & Masina, Simona, 2013. "Reprint of: “Impacts of natural and anthropogenic climate variations on North Pacific plankton in an Earth System Model”," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 48-63.
    9. Afonso Ferreira & Carlos R. B. Mendes & Raul R. Costa & Vanda Brotas & Virginia M. Tavano & Catarina V. Guerreiro & Eduardo R. Secchi & Ana C. Brito, 2024. "Climate change is associated with higher phytoplankton biomass and longer blooms in the West Antarctic Peninsula," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Michael P. Totten, 2012. "GreenATP: APPortunities to catalyze local to global positive tipping points through collaborative innovation networks," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 98-113, July.
    11. Langholz, Jeff A. & Abeles, Adina, 2014. "Rethinking postgraduate education for marine conservation," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 372-375.
    12. Vincenzo Marinello & Guglielmo L.M. Dinicol� & Chiara Di Puma, 2021. "Social indicators to measure the well-being of the population. Benchmarking countries," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 75(1), pages 53-64, January-M.
    13. Han, Yue & Zhou, Yuntao, 2022. "Investigating biophysical control of marine phytoplankton dynamics via Bayesian mechanistic modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 474(C).
    14. Malone, Thomas C. & DiGiacomo, Paul M. & Gonçalves, Emanuel & Knap, Anthony H. & Talaue-McManus, Liana & de Mora, Stephen, 2014. "A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 262-272.
    15. Deininger, Michaela & Koellner, Thomas & Brey, Thomas & Teschke, Katharina, 2016. "Towards mapping and assessing antarctic marine ecosystem services – The weddell sea case study," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 22(PA), pages 174-192.
    16. Urtizberea, Agurtzane & Dupont, Nicolas & Rosland, Rune & Aksnes, Dag L., 2013. "Sensitivity of euphotic zone properties to CDOM variations in marine ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 256(C), pages 16-22.
    17. Raapoto, H. & Monaco, C.J. & Van Wynsberge, S. & Le Gendre, R. & Le Luyer, J., 2024. "Assessing regional connectivity patterns of bivalvia in fragmented archipelagos: Insights from biophysical modeling in French Polynesia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    18. Michael W. Lomas & Nicholas R. Bates & Rodney J. Johnson & Deborah K. Steinberg & Tatsuro Tanioka, 2022. "Adaptive carbon export response to warming in the Sargasso Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Tahmina Ajmal & Fazeel Mohammed & Martin S. Goodchild & Jipsy Sudarsanan & Sarah Halse, 2024. "Mitigating the Impact of Harmful Algal Blooms on Aquaculture Using Technological Interventions: Case Study on a South African Farm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, April.
    20. Visbeck, Martin & Kronfeld-Goharani, Ulrike & Neumann, Barbara & Rickels, Wilfried & Schmidt, Jörn & van Doorn, Erik, 2013. "Establishing a sustainable development goal for oceans and coasts to face the challenges of our future ocean," Kiel Working Papers 1847, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. Chin-Hsien Cheng & Simon A. T. Redfern, 2022. "Impact of interannual and multidecadal trends on methane-climate feedbacks and sensitivity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.

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