IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/thpobi/v79y2011i1p1-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Ajelli, Marco
  • Fumanelli, Laura
  • Manfredi, Piero
  • Merler, Stefano

Abstract

Viral hepatitis A is still common in Italy, especially in Southern regions. In this study, a metapopulation model for hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission is proposed and analyzed. Analytical results on the asymptotic and transient behaviors of the system are carried out. Based on the available Italian movement data, a national spatial contact matrix at the regional level, which could be used for new studies on the transmission dynamics of other infectious diseases, is derived for modeling fluxes of individuals. Despite the small number of fitted parameters, model simulations are in good agreement with the observed average HAV incidence in all regions. Our results suggest that the mass vaccination program introduced in one Italian region only (Puglia, the one with the highest endemicity level) could have played a role in the decline of HAV incidence in the country as a whole. The only notable exception is represented by Campania, a Southern region showing a high endemicity level, which is not substantially affected by HAV dynamics in Puglia. Finally, our results highlight that the continuation of the vaccination campaign in Puglia would have a relevant impact in decreasing long-term HAV prevalence, especially in Southern Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajelli, Marco & Fumanelli, Laura & Manfredi, Piero & Merler, Stefano, 2011. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:79:y:2011:i:1:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2010.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580910000912
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tpb.2010.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mimmo Iannelli & Piero Manfredi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Immigration in Age-structured Epidemic Models," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 169-191.
    2. M. J. Keeling & C. A. Gilligan, 2000. "Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6806), pages 903-906, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kimberly M. Thompson, 2016. "Evolution and Use of Dynamic Transmission Models for Measles and Rubella Risk and Policy Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1383-1403, July.
    2. Layla Höckerstedt & Elina Numminen & Ben Ashby & Mike Boots & Anna Norberg & Anna-Liisa Laine, 2022. "Spatially structured eco-evolutionary dynamics in a host-pathogen interaction render isolated populations vulnerable to disease," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    4. M. Ceddia, 2012. "Optimal Disease Eradication in Sympatric Metapopulations," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 499-530, August.
    5. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2024. "Lives versus livelihoods in the middle ages: The impact of the plague on trade over 400 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. David Kaniewski & Nick Marriner, 2020. "Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-industrial Europe," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:79:y:2011:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/intelligence .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.