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Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Davis

    (Ecology and Evolution Group, The University)

  • Linda S. Jenkinson

    (Ecology and Evolution Group, The University)

  • John H. Lawton

    (NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College Silwood Park)

  • Bryan Shorrocks

    (Ecology and Evolution Group, The University)

  • Simon Wood

    (NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College Silwood Park
    University of St Andrews)

Abstract

Many attempts to predict the biotic responses to climate change rely on the ‘climate envelope’ approach1,2,3, in which the current distribution of a species is mapped in climate-space and then, if the position of that climate-space changes, the distribution of the species is predicted to shift accordingly4,5,6. The flaw in this approach is that distributions of species also reflect the influence of interactions with other species7,8,9,10, so predictions based on climate envelopes may be very misleading if the interactions between species are altered by climate change11. An additional problem is that current distributions may be the result of sources and sinks12, in which species appear to thrive in places where they really persist only because individuals disperse into them from elsewhere13,14. Here we use microcosm experiments on simple but realistic assemblages to show how misleading the climate envelope approach can be. We show that dispersal and interactions, which are important elements of population dynamics15, must be included in predictions of biotic responses to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Davis & Linda S. Jenkinson & John H. Lawton & Bryan Shorrocks & Simon Wood, 1998. "Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6669), pages 783-786, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:391:y:1998:i:6669:d:10.1038_35842
    DOI: 10.1038/35842
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    Cited by:

    1. McRae, Brad H. & Schumaker, Nathan H. & McKane, Robert B. & Busing, Richard T. & Solomon, Allen M. & Burdick, Connie A., 2008. "A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 77-91.
    2. Gaikwad, Jitendra & Wilson, Peter D. & Ranganathan, Shoba, 2011. "Ecological niche modeling of customary medicinal plant species used by Australian Aborigines to identify species-rich and culturally valuable areas for conservation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3437-3443.
    3. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz, 2019. "Diversity in interaction strength promotes rich dynamical behaviours in a three-species ecological system," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 243-253.
    4. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    5. Shengman Lyu & Jake M. Alexander, 2022. "Competition contributes to both warm and cool range edges," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Park, Junpyo, 2021. "The interplay of rock-paper-scissors competition and environments mediates species coexistence and intriguing dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    7. Zdeněk Laštůvka, 2009. "Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 53-62.
    8. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Murray, Rua & Plank, Michael J. & Godsoe, William, 2017. "Effects of biotic interactions and dispersal on the presence-absence of multiple species," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 185-194.
    9. Hof, Anouschka R. & Jansson, Roland & Nilsson, Christer, 2012. "The usefulness of elevation as a predictor variable in species distribution modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 246(C), pages 86-90.
    10. Rinnan, D. Scott, 2018. "Population persistence in the face of climate change and competition: A battle on two fronts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 78-88.
    11. Choden, Kunzang & Nitschke, Craig R. & Stewart, Stephen B. & Keenan, Rodney J., 2021. "The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of key tree species and Cordyceps in Bhutan: Implications for ecological functions and rural livelihoods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    12. Takuya Iwamura & Kerrie A Wilson & Oscar Venter & Hugh P Possingham, 2010. "A Climatic Stability Approach to Prioritizing Global Conservation Investments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-9, November.
    13. Munoz, François, 2009. "Distance-based eigenvector maps (DBEM) to analyse metapopulation structure with irregular sampling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(20), pages 2683-2689.
    14. Sebastian Pipins & Jonathan E. M. Baillie & Alex Bowmer & Laura J. Pollock & Nisha Owen & Rikki Gumbs, 2024. "Advancing EDGE Zones to identify spatial conservation priorities of tetrapod evolutionary history," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Ariel E Marcy & Scott Fendorf & James L Patton & Elizabeth A Hadly, 2013. "Morphological Adaptations for Digging and Climate-Impacted Soil Properties Define Pocket Gopher (Thomomys spp.) Distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-14, May.
    16. Mohd, Mohd Hafiz & Murray, Rua & Plank, Michael J. & Godsoe, William, 2016. "Effects of dispersal and stochasticity on the presence–absence of multiple species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 49-59.
    17. Daniel K Gibson-Reinemer & Frank J Rahel, 2015. "Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    18. Chefaoui, Rosa M. & Lobo, Jorge M., 2008. "Assessing the effects of pseudo-absences on predictive distribution model performance," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(4), pages 478-486.
    19. Anja Jaeschke & Torsten Bittner & Anke Jentsch & Björn Reineking & Helmut Schlumprecht & Carl Beierkuhnlein, 2012. "Biotic Interactions in the Face of Climate Change: A Comparison of Three Modelling Approaches," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Moullec, Fabien & Barrier, Nicolas & Drira, Sabrine & Guilhaumon, François & Hattab, Tarek & Peck, Myron A. & Shin, Yunne-Jai, 2022. "Using species distribution models only may underestimate climate change impacts on future marine biodiversity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    21. Buse, Jörn & Griebeler, Eva Maria, 2011. "Incorporating classified dispersal assumptions in predictive distribution models – A case study with grasshoppers and bush-crickets," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(13), pages 2130-2141.
    22. Barlett, Trinidad Ruiz & Laguna, María Fabiana & Abramson, Guillermo & Monjeau, Adrian & Martin, Gabriel, 2024. "A new distributional model coupling environmental and biotic factors," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    23. Trnka, M. & Muška, F. & Semerádová, D. & Dubrovský, M. & Kocmánková, E. & Žalud, Z., 2007. "European Corn Borer life stage model: Regional estimates of pest development and spatial distribution under present and future climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 61-84.
    24. Rocio Santiago & Monica Cristina Martins & Tais Nascimento & Luis Filipe de Barros & Matheus Vilaca & Emerson Peter Falcão & Nicacio Henriques da Silva & Maria Estrella Legaz & Carlos Vicente & Eugen, 2021. "Production of Bioactive Lichen Compounds by Alginate-Immobilized Bionts Isolated from Cladonia verticillaris: An in Vitro Study," Journal of Plant Studies, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(1), pages 1-43, December.

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