IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v455y2021ics0304380021002106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of key tree species and Cordyceps in Bhutan: Implications for ecological functions and rural livelihoods

Author

Listed:
  • Choden, Kunzang
  • Nitschke, Craig R.
  • Stewart, Stephen B.
  • Keenan, Rodney J.

Abstract

Rural communities in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan are dependant on natural capital for their livelihoods. Climate change impacts on ecosystem could have serious consequences for these communities but little research has been done to explore these potential impacts. In this study, we used Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models to model current and potential future distribution of major timber species (Abies densa, Pinus wallichiana, Tsuga dumosa), fuelwood species (Quercus spp, Betula spp, Betula utilis, Rhododendron spp, Rhododendron arboreum) and an important non-timber resource (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Bhutan Himalayan region. Models were based on species presence and absence data from 575 plots and a new high-resolution climate dataset developed for Bhutan. Future projections were based on IPCC's representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s in Bhutan. Mean annual temperature and precipitation of driest quarters were found to be the most influential variables in modelling the current distribution of these species, with the distribution of most of the species projected to decrease significantly and shift to higher elevations. The current distribution of Ophiocordyceps sinensis was modelled to decrease by 79% at the national level with only 21% range overlap between current and future distributions. Current distribution of timber species like Abies densa and Tsuga dumosa were modelled to decline by 98% and 99% respectively at national level with very low range overlaps between current and future distribution suggesting high species vulnerability to climate change. In contrast, fuel wood species like Betula spp, Quercus spp, Rhododendron arboreum all exhibited less vulnerability to climate change with over 50% of their current range overlapping with future distribution across Bhutan and in the Nikachu watershed. These potential changes in distribution patterns of these species could impact on the functions and ecosystem services provided by these species and socio-economic conditions of rural communities reliant on these species for their livelihoods in Bhutan. Lower rates of global greenhouse gas emissions and adoption of adaptation measures and management interventions can reduce these potential impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Choden, Kunzang & Nitschke, Craig R. & Stewart, Stephen B. & Keenan, Rodney J., 2021. "The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of key tree species and Cordyceps in Bhutan: Implications for ecological functions and rural livelihoods," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:455:y:2021:i:c:s0304380021002106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380021002106
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109650?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew J. Colloff & Michael D. Doherty & Sandra Lavorel & Michael Dunlop & Russell M. Wise & Suzanne M. Prober, 2016. "Adaptation services and pathways for the management of temperate montane forests under transformational climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 267-282, September.
    2. Rajiv Chaturvedi & Ranjith Gopalakrishnan & Mathangi Jayaraman & Govindasamy Bala & N. Joshi & Raman Sukumar & N. Ravindranath, 2011. "Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 119-142, February.
    3. Andrew J. Davis & Linda S. Jenkinson & John H. Lawton & Bryan Shorrocks & Simon Wood, 1998. "Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 391(6669), pages 783-786, February.
    4. Nitschke, Craig R. & Innes, John L., 2008. "A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 263-277.
    5. Angelsen, Arild & Jagger, Pamela & Babigumira, Ronnie & Belcher, Brian & Hogarth, Nicholas J. & Bauch, Simone & Börner, Jan & Smith-Hall, Carsten & Wunder, Sven, 2014. "Environmental Income and Rural Livelihoods: A Global-Comparative Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(S1), pages 12-28.
    6. Uttam Babu Shrestha & Kamaljit S Bawa, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-11, September.
    7. Moktan, Mani Ram & Norbu, Lungten & Choden, Kunzang, 2016. "Can community forestry contribute to household income and sustainable forestry practices in rural area? A case study from Tshapey and Zariphensum in Bhutan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 149-157.
    8. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jinyu Shen & Wei Duan & Yuqi Wang & Yijing Zhang, 2022. "Household Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in West China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-14, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    2. Zdeněk Laštůvka, 2009. "Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 53-62.
    3. Okumu, Boscow & Muchapondwa, Edwin, 2020. "Welfare and forest cover impacts of incentive based conservation: Evidence from Kenyan community forest associations," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Yuncheng Zhao & Mingyue Zhao & Lei Zhang & Chunyi Wang & Yinlong Xu, 2021. "Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea ( Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.
    5. McRae, Brad H. & Schumaker, Nathan H. & McKane, Robert B. & Busing, Richard T. & Solomon, Allen M. & Burdick, Connie A., 2008. "A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 77-91.
    6. Feuerbacher, Arndt & Rai, Arun & Lofgren, Hans & Sander, Klas & Grethe, Harald, 2021. "Policies to reconcile forest conservation and rural development: A pathway to bridge the forest transition in Bhutan?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Daniel K Gibson-Reinemer & Frank J Rahel, 2015. "Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Irfan Rashid & Shakil Romshoo & Rajiv Chaturvedi & N. Ravindranath & Raman Sukumar & Mathangi Jayaraman & Thatiparthi Lakshmi & Jagmohan Sharma, 2015. "Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 601-613, October.
    9. Baiyegunhi, L.J.S. & Oppong, B.B., 2016. "Commercialisation of mopane worm (Imbrasia belina) in rural households in Limpopo Province, South Africa," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 141-148.
    10. Shackleton, C.M. & Garekae, H. & Sardeshpande, M. & Sinasson Sanni, G. & Twine, W.C., 2024. "Non-timber forest products as poverty traps: Fact or fiction?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    12. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    13. Francesca Pilotto & Ingolf Kühn & Rita Adrian & Renate Alber & Audrey Alignier & Christopher Andrews & Jaana Bäck & Luc Barbaro & Deborah Beaumont & Natalie Beenaerts & Sue Benham & David S. Boukal & , 2020. "Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Mathys, A.S. & Coops, N.C. & Simard, S.W. & Waring, R.H. & Aitken, S.N., 2018. "Diverging distribution of seedlings and mature trees reflects recent climate change in British Columbia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 145-153.
    15. Chang, Hung-Hao & Lee, Brian & Hsieh, Yi-Ting, 2021. "Participation in afforestation programs and the distribution of forest farm income," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    17. Evelyn Asante-Yeboah & George Ashiagbor & Kwabena Asubonteng & Stefan Sieber & Justice C. Mensah & Christine Fürst, 2022. "Analyzing Variations in Size and Intensities in Land Use Dynamics for Sustainable Land Use Management: A Case of the Coastal Landscapes of South-Western Ghana," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-28, May.
    18. Cuong Van Hoang & Tuyen Quang Tran & Yen Hai Thi Nguyen & Lan Thanh Nguyen, 2020. "Forest resources and household welfare: Empirical evidence from North Central Vietnam," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 311-333, November.
    19. Mugido, Worship & Shackleton, Charlie M., 2019. "The contribution of NTFPS to rural livelihoods in different agro-ecological zones of South Africa," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    20. Meyer, Maximilian & Hulke, Carolin & Kamwi, Jonathan & Kolem, Hannah & Börner, Jan, 2022. "Spatially heterogeneous effects of collective action on environmental dependence in Namibia’s Zambezi region," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:455:y:2021:i:c:s0304380021002106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.