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Food production shocks across land and sea

Author

Listed:
  • Richard S. Cottrell

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

  • Kirsty L. Nash

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

  • Benjamin S. Halpern

    (University of California
    University of California
    Imperial College London)

  • Tomas A. Remenyi

    (University of Tasmania)

  • Stuart P. Corney

    (University of Tasmania)

  • Aysha Fleming

    (University of Tasmania
    CSIRO Land and Water)

  • Elizabeth A. Fulton

    (University of Tasmania
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Sara Hornborg

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden)

  • Alexandra Johne

    (University of Tasmania)

  • Reg A. Watson

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

  • Julia L. Blanchard

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

Abstract

Sudden losses to food production (that is, shocks) and their consequences across land and sea pose cumulative threats to global sustainability. We conducted an integrated assessment of global production data from crop, livestock, aquaculture and fisheries sectors over 53 years to understand how shocks occurring in one food sector can create diverse and linked challenges among others. We show that some regions are shock hotspots, exposed frequently to shocks across multiple sectors. Critically, shock frequency has increased through time on land and sea at a global scale. Geopolitical and extreme-weather events were the main shock drivers identified, but with considerable differences across sectors. We illustrate how social and ecological drivers, influenced by the dynamics of the food system, can spill over multiple food sectors and create synchronous challenges or trade-offs among terrestrial and aquatic systems. In a more shock-prone and interconnected world, bold food policy and social protection mechanisms that help people anticipate, cope with and recover from losses will be central to sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S. Cottrell & Kirsty L. Nash & Benjamin S. Halpern & Tomas A. Remenyi & Stuart P. Corney & Aysha Fleming & Elizabeth A. Fulton & Sara Hornborg & Alexandra Johne & Reg A. Watson & Julia L. Blan, 2019. "Food production shocks across land and sea," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 130-137, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1038_s41893-018-0210-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0210-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Gromov & Thorsten Upmann, 2021. "Dynamics and Economics of Shallow Lakes: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Huang, Hongrong & Zhuo, La & Wang, Wei & Wu, Pute, 2023. "Resilience assessment of blue and green water resources for staple crop production in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    3. Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "Welfare and Redistributive Effects of Social Assistance in the Global South," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 3-22, December.
    4. Brian Walker & Anne-Sophie Crépin & Magnus Nyström & John M. Anderies & Erik Andersson & Thomas Elmqvist & Cibele Queiroz & Scott Barrett & Elena Bennett & Juan Camilo Cardenas & Stephen R. Carpenter , 2023. "Response diversity as a sustainability strategy," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 621-629, June.
    5. Reimer, Matthew N. & Rogers, Anthony & Sanchirico, James, 2024. "Adaptive Systems for Climate-Ready Fisheries Management," RFF Working Paper Series 24-06, Resources for the Future.
    6. Elena Tamburini & Elisa Anna Fano & Giuseppe Castaldelli & Edoardo Turolla, 2019. "Life Cycle Assessment of Oyster Farming in the Po Delta, Northern Italy," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    7. Moritz Laber & Peter Klimek & Martin Bruckner & Liuhuaying Yang & Stefan Thurner, 2022. "Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability," Papers 2210.01846, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    8. William J. Thompson & Varun Varma & Jonas Joerin & Solhanlle Bonilla-Duarte & Daniel P. Bebber & Wilma Blaser-Hart & Birgit Kopainsky & Leonhard Späth & Bianca Curcio & Johan Six & Pius Krütli, 2023. "Smallholder farmer resilience to extreme weather events in a global food value chain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(11), pages 1-22, November.
    9. George Van Voorn & Geerten Hengeveld & Jan Verhagen, 2020. "An agent based model representation to assess resilience and efficiency of food supply chains," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, November.
    10. Lotanna E. Emediegwu, 2024. "Assessing the Asymmetric Effect of Global Climate Anomalies on Food Prices: Evidence from Local Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(10), pages 2743-2772, October.
    11. Paul D. Jensen & Caroline Orfila, 2021. "Mapping the production-consumption gap of an urban food system: an empirical case study of food security and resilience," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(3), pages 551-570, June.

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