IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v175y2022ics0040162521007538.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How do demand-side policies contribute to the electrification and decarburization of private transportation in China? A CGE-based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Hong-Dian
  • Xue, Mei-Mei
  • Liang, Qiao-Mei
  • Masui, Toshihiko
  • Ren, Zhong-Yuan

Abstract

Deploying electric vehicles (EVs) is an important strategy for addressing local pollution and greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. However, EV purchase subsidies in China are being phased down, which could result in an oversupply of EVs. Therefore, based on a computable general equilibrium model with detailed transport and electricity technologies modules, this study focuses on establishing several feasible demand-side policies for private transport electrification and decarbonisation in China and analyses their environmental and socioeconomic effects. Results show that the effects of keeping subsidies are best for EV penetration in the short-term, and those of improving consumption preference are optimal in the long run. However, both measures show relatively limited effects on carbon abatement, energy savings, and electrification. Therefore, to improve overall EV penetration, we suggest a combination of keeping subsidies in the short-term and moderately improving EV consumption preference in the long run. Moreover, to improve the carbon abatement effect of EV deployment, a subsidy for renewable electricity should be implemented to promote the cost competitiveness of low-carbon electricity, which has positive effects on carbon abatement, fossil energy savings, electrification and smaller GDP loss. Meanwhile, targeted operations planning for EVs, petroleum-fuelled vehicles, electricity and petroleum enterprises were also proposed under different macro-control policy scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Hong-Dian & Xue, Mei-Mei & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Masui, Toshihiko & Ren, Zhong-Yuan, 2022. "How do demand-side policies contribute to the electrification and decarburization of private transportation in China? A CGE-based analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007538
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121322
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521007538
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121322?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Linden, Anna-Lisa & Carlsson-Kanyama, Annika & Eriksson, Bjorn, 2006. "Efficient and inefficient aspects of residential energy behaviour: What are the policy instruments for change?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1918-1927, September.
    2. Yang, J. & Chen, F., 2021. "How are social-psychological factors related to consumer preferences for plug-in electric vehicles? Case studies from two cities in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Sun, Lishan & Huang, Yuchen & Liu, Shuli & Chen, Yanyan & Yao, Liya & Kashyap, Anil, 2017. "A completive survey study on the feasibility and adaptation of EVs in Beijing, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 128-139.
    4. Qiu, Y.Q. & Zhou, P. & Sun, H.C., 2019. "Assessing the effectiveness of city-level electric vehicle policies in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 22-31.
    5. Safari, M., 2018. "Battery electric vehicles: Looking behind to move forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 54-65.
    6. Xinyu Chen & Hongcai Zhang & Zhiwei Xu & Chris P. Nielsen & Michael B. McElroy & Jiajun Lv, 2018. "Impacts of fleet types and charging modes for electric vehicles on emissions under different penetrations of wind power," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 413-421, May.
    7. McFarland, J. R. & Reilly, J. M. & Herzog, H. J., 2004. "Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 685-707, July.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Wei, 2021. "The impact of electric vehicle penetration: A recursive dynamic CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Sierzchula, William & Bakker, Sjoerd & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2014. "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 183-194.
    10. Björn Nykvist & Måns Nilsson, 2015. "Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 329-332, April.
    11. Cavalletti, Barbara & Levaggi, Rosella, 2002. "The provision of impure public goods in a non-competitive market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-63, January.
    12. Chen, Su-Mei & He, Ling-Yun, 2014. "Welfare loss of China's air pollution: How to make personal vehicle transportation policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 106-118.
    13. Yuzuru Miyata & Hiroyuki Shibusawa & Tomoaki Fujii, 2018. "Economic Impact Of Subsidy Policies To Electric Vehicle Society In Toyohashi City In Japan — A Cge-Modeling Approach," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(02), pages 409-429, March.
    14. Mine Isik & Rebecca Dodder & P. Ozge Kaplan, 2021. "Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 92-104, January.
    15. Hoffmann, Anders N., 2003. "Imperfect competition in computable general equilibrium models -- a primer," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 119-139, January.
    16. Fox, Jacob & Axsen, Jonn & Jaccard, Mark, 2017. "Picking Winners: Modelling the Costs of Technology-specific Climate Policy in the U.S. Passenger Vehicle Sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 133-147.
    17. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Kenji Gasawa & Hideo Hashimoto, 2010. "Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28165-3.
    18. Sue Wing, Ian, 2008. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technology detail in a social accounting framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 547-573, March.
    19. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2017. "The impact of natural gas price control in China: A computable general equilibrium approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 524-531.
    20. Qiao-Mei Liang & Qian Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2013. "Assessing the Distributional Impacts of Carbon Tax among Households across Different Income Groups: The Case of China," Energy & Environment, , vol. 24(7-8), pages 1323-1346, December.
    21. Hao, Han & Ou, Xunmin & Du, Jiuyu & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 722-732.
    22. Ye, Rui-Ke & Gao, Zhuang-Fei & Fang, Kai & Liu, Kang-Li & Chen, Jia-Wei, 2021. "Moving from subsidy stimulation to endogenous development: A system dynamics analysis of China's NEVs in the post-subsidy era," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    23. Garcia, Rita & Freire, Fausto, 2017. "A review of fleet-based life-cycle approaches focusing on energy and environmental impacts of vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 935-945.
    24. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Shadnam Zarbil & Abolfazl Vahedi & Hossein Azizi Moghaddam & Pavel Aleksandrovich Khlyupin, 2022. "Design and Sizing of Electric Bus Flash Charger Based on a Flywheel Energy Storage System: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Liu, Li-Jing & Dong, Kangyin & Fu, Yu-Wei, 2022. "How will sectoral coverage in the carbon trading system affect the total oil consumption in China? A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Yuan, Hong & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Xie, Hui & Ma, Zhili & Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Xin, 2024. "Battery electric vehicle charging in China: Energy demand and emissions trends in the 2020s," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    4. Teng, Qiang & Zhang, Yu-Fei & Jiang, Hong-Dian & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2023. "Economy-wide assessment of achieving carbon neutrality in China's power sector: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    5. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Dong, Kangyin & Qing, Jing & Teng, Qiang, 2023. "The role of technical change in low-carbon transformation and crises in the electricity market: A CGE analysis with R&D investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Liu, Bingchun & Song, Chengyuan & Liang, Xiaoqin & Lai, Mingzhao & Yu, Zhecheng & Ji, Jie, 2023. "Regional differences in China's electric vehicle sales forecasting: Under supply-demand policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Pradhan, Basanta K. & Dong, Kangyin & Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2024. "An economy-wide impacts of multiple mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Purohit, Pallav & Liang, Qiao-Mei & Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Li-Jing, 2022. "The cost-benefit comparisons of China's and India's NDCs based on carbon marginal abatement cost curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nykvist, Björn & Sprei, Frances & Nilsson, Måns, 2019. "Assessing the progress toward lower priced long range battery electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 144-155.
    2. Zheng, Xuemei & Menezes, Flavio & Zheng, Xiaofeng & Wu, Chengkuan, 2022. "An empirical assessment of the impact of subsidies on EV adoption in China: A difference-in-differences approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 121-136.
    3. Santos, Georgina & Rembalski, Sebastian, 2021. "Do electric vehicles need subsidies in the UK?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Teng, Qiang & Zhang, Yu-Fei & Jiang, Hong-Dian & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2023. "Economy-wide assessment of achieving carbon neutrality in China's power sector: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    5. Xiaoxue Zheng & Haiyan Lin & Zhi Liu & Dengfeng Li & Carlos Llopis-Albert & Shouzhen Zeng, 2018. "Manufacturing Decisions and Government Subsidies for Electric Vehicles in China: A Maximal Social Welfare Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, March.
    6. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    7. Julien Lefevre, 2018. "Modeling the Socioeconomic Impacts of the Adoption of a Carbon Pricing Instrument – Literature review," CIRED Working Papers hal-03128619, HAL.
    8. Cagli, Efe Caglar, 2023. "The volatility spillover between battery metals and future mobility stocks: Evidence from the time-varying frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    9. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Pradhan, Basanta K. & Dong, Kangyin & Yu, Yan-Yan & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2024. "An economy-wide impacts of multiple mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Liu, Chang & Liu, Yuan & Zhang, Dayong & Xie, Chunping, 2022. "The capital market responses to new energy vehicle (NEV) subsidies: An event study on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    12. Zhongqi Deng & Peng Tian, 2020. "Are China's subsidies for electric vehicles effective?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 475-489, June.
    13. Globisch, Joachim & Plötz, Patrick & Dütschke, Elisabeth & Wietschel, Martin, 2018. "Consumer evaluation of public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S13/2018, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Wei, 2021. "The impact of electric vehicle penetration: A recursive dynamic CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Huang, Xiaodan & Chang, Shiyan & Zheng, Dingqian & Zhang, Xiliang, 2020. "The role of BECCS in deep decarbonization of China's economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Schwab, Julia & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2022. "Electric Vehicle Cost in 2035: The impact of market penetration and charging strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Song, Ziyou & Li, Jianqiu & Hou, Jun & Hofmann, Heath & Ouyang, Minggao & Du, Jiuyu, 2018. "The battery-supercapacitor hybrid energy storage system in electric vehicle applications: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 433-441.
    18. Zhang, Xingping & Liang, Yanni & Yu, Enhai & Rao, Rao & Xie, Jian, 2017. "Review of electric vehicle policies in China: Content summary and effect analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 698-714.
    19. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein & Sherilyn Wee, 2017. "Electric vehicles revisited: a review of factors that affect adoption," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 79-93, January.
    20. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "How does tax system on energy industries affect energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economy in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.