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Predictive modeling of battery degradation and greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. state-level electric vehicle operation

Author

Listed:
  • Fan Yang

    (Case Western Reserve University)

  • Yuanyuan Xie

    (Argonne National Laboratory)

  • Yelin Deng

    (University of Wisconsin)

  • Chris Yuan

    (Case Western Reserve University)

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely promoted as clean alternatives to conventional vehicles for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ground transportation. However, the battery undergoes a sophisticated degradation process during EV operations and its effects on EV energy consumption and GHG emissions are unknown. Here we show on a typical 24 kWh lithium-manganese-oxide–graphite battery pack that the degradation of EV battery can be mathematically modeled to predict battery life and to study its effects on energy consumption and GHG emissions from EV operations. We found that under US state-level average driving conditions, the battery life is ranging between 5.2 years in Florida and 13.3 years in Alaska under 30% battery degradation limit. The battery degradation will cause a 11.5–16.2% increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions per km driven at 30% capacity loss. This study provides a robust analytical approach and results for supporting policy making in prioritizing EV deployment in the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Yang & Yuanyuan Xie & Yelin Deng & Chris Yuan, 2018. "Predictive modeling of battery degradation and greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. state-level electric vehicle operation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-04826-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04826-0
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    1. Oda, Hiromu & Noguchi, Hiroki & Fuse, Masaaki, 2022. "Review of life cycle assessment for automobiles: A meta-analysis-based approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Xingwang Tang & Qin Guo & Ming Li & Mingzhe Jiang, 2020. "Heating Performance Characteristics of an Electric Vehicle Heat Pump Air Conditioning System Based on Exergy Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Hu, Yu & Armada, Miguel & Jesús Sánchez, María, 2022. "Potential utilization of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the major European electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    4. Christos S. Ioakimidis & Alberto Murillo-Marrodán & Ali Bagheri & Dimitrios Thomas & Konstantinos N. Genikomsakis, 2019. "Life Cycle Assessment of a Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Electric Vehicle Battery in Second Life Application Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, May.
    5. Maxwell Woody & Michael T. Craig & Parth T. Vaishnav & Geoffrey M. Lewis & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2022. "Optimizing future cost and emissions of electric delivery vehicles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 1108-1122, June.
    6. Rauf, Huzaifa & Khalid, Muhammad & Arshad, Naveed, 2022. "Machine learning in state of health and remaining useful life estimation: Theoretical and technological development in battery degradation modelling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Wang, Hua & Zhao, De & Meng, Qiang & Ong, Ghim Ping & Lee, Der-Horng, 2020. "Network-level energy consumption estimation for electric vehicles considering vehicle and user heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 30-46.
    8. Maxwell Woody & Shawn A. Adderly & Rushabh Bohra & Gregory A. Keoleian, 2024. "Electric and gasoline vehicle total cost of ownership across US cities," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 28(2), pages 194-215, April.
    9. Wang, Hua & Zhao, De & Cai, Yutong & Meng, Qiang & Ong, Ghim Ping, 2021. "Taxi trajectory data based fast-charging facility planning for urban electric taxi systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    10. Xu, Bin & Shi, Junzhe & Li, Sixu & Li, Huayi & Wang, Zhe, 2021. "Energy consumption and battery aging minimization using a Q-learning strategy for a battery/ultracapacitor electric vehicle," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Johannes Morfeldt & Daniel J. A. Johansson, 2022. "Impacts of shared mobility on vehicle lifetimes and on the carbon footprint of electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Yue Ren & Xin Sun & Paul Wolfram & Shaoqiong Zhao & Xu Tang & Yifei Kang & Dongchang Zhao & Xinzhu Zheng, 2023. "Hidden delays of climate mitigation benefits in the race for electric vehicle deployment," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Vallera, A.M. & Nunes, P.M. & Brito, M.C., 2021. "Why we need battery swapping technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. Zhao, Yang & Wang, Zhenpo & Shen, Zuo-Jun Max & Zhang, Lei & Dorrell, David G. & Sun, Fengchun, 2022. "Big data-driven decoupling framework enabling quantitative assessments of electric vehicle performance degradation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    15. Zeng, Ziling & Wang, Shuaian & Qu, Xiaobo, 2022. "On the role of battery degradation in en-route charge scheduling for an electric bus system," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Mishra, Partha Pratim & Latif, Aadil & Emmanuel, Michael & Shi, Ying & McKenna, Killian & Smith, Kandler & Nagarajan, Adarsh, 2020. "Analysis of degradation in residential battery energy storage systems for rate-based use-cases," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    17. Lai, Xin & Huang, Yunfeng & Deng, Cong & Gu, Huanghui & Han, Xuebing & Zheng, Yuejiu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2021. "Sorting, regrouping, and echelon utilization of the large-scale retired lithium batteries: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    18. Chunbo Zhang & Xiang Zhao & Romain Sacchi & Fengqi You, 2023. "Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.

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