IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-55981-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying the shift of public export finance from fossil fuels to renewable energy

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Censkowsky

    (University of Lausanne (HEC Lausanne)
    Perspectives Climate Research gGmbH)

  • Paul Waidelich

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Igor Shishlov

    (Perspectives Climate Research gGmbH
    HEC Paris)

  • Bjarne Steffen

    (ETH Zurich)

Abstract

By providing guarantees and direct lending, public export credit agencies (ECAs) de-risk and thus enable energy projects worldwide. Despite their importance for global greenhouse gas emission pathways, a systematic assessment of ECAs’ role and financing patterns in the low-carbon energy transition is still needed. Using commercial transaction data, here we analyze 921 energy deals backed by ECAs from 31 OECD and non-OECD countries (excluding Canada) between 2013 and 2023. We find that while the share of renewables in global ECA energy commitments rose substantially between 2013 and 2023, ECAs remain heavily involved in the fossil fuel sector, with support varying substantially across technologies, value chain stages, and countries. Portfolio ‘greening’ is primarily driven by members of the E3F climate club, impacting deal financing structures and shifting finance flows towards high-income countries. Our results call for reconsidering ECA mandates and strengthening international climate-related cooperation in export finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Censkowsky & Paul Waidelich & Igor Shishlov & Bjarne Steffen, 2025. "Quantifying the shift of public export finance from fossil fuels to renewable energy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-55981-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-55981-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-55981-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-55981-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willem Thorbecke, 2023. "Japanese Economic Performance after the Pandemic: A Sectoral Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, May.
    2. Felipe Sanchez & Linus Linde, 2023. "Turning out the light: criteria for determining the sequencing of countries phasing out oil extraction and the just transition implications," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 1182-1196, October.
    3. Kristen Hopewell, 2019. "How Rising Powers Create Governance Gaps: The Case of Export Credit and the Environment," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 19(1), pages 34-52, February.
    4. Yacob Mulugetta & Youba Sokona & Philipp A. Trotter & Samuel Fankhauser & Jessica Omukuti & Lucas Somavilla Croxatto & Bjarne Steffen & Meron Tesfamichael & Edo Abraham & Jean-Paul Adam & Lawrence Agb, 2022. "Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(11), pages 1015-1022, November.
    5. Thibault Briera & Julien Lefèvre, 2024. "Reducing the cost of capital through international climate finance to accelerate the renewable energy transition in developing countries," Post-Print hal-04824002, HAL.
    6. Kong, Bo & Gallagher, Kevin P., 2021. "The new coal champion of the world: The political economy of Chinese overseas development finance for coal-fired power plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Marion Jansen, 2022. "Managing the green transition: The role of the OECD export credit arrangement," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(4), pages 554-556, September.
    8. Lola Nacke & Vadim Vinichenko & Aleh Cherp & Avi Jakhmola & Jessica Jewell, 2024. "Compensating affected parties necessary for rapid coal phase-out but expensive if extended to major emitters," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Maxfield Peterson & Christian Downie, 2024. "The international political economy of export credit agencies and the energy transition," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 978-994, May.
    10. Andreas Klasen & Jan Vassard, 2023. "The new OECD arrangement on export credits: Breakthrough or bad compromise?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(5), pages 958-961, November.
    11. Briera, Thibault & Lefèvre, Julien, 2024. "Reducing the cost of capital through international climate finance to accelerate the renewable energy transition in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    12. Garrett-Peltier, Heidi, 2017. "Green versus brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 439-447.
    13. Diluiso, Francesca & Walk, Paula & Manych, Niccolò & Cerutti, Nicola & Chipiga, Vladislav & Workman, Annabelle & Ayas, Ceren & Cui, Ryna Yiyun & Cui, Diyang & Song, Kaihui & Banisch, Lucy A. & Moretti, 2021. "Coal transitions—part 1: a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 16(11).
    14. Kristen Hopewell, 2021. "Power transitions and global trade governance: The impact of a rising China on the export credit regime," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 634-652, July.
    15. Kate Dooley & Ceecee Holz & Sivan Kartha & Sonja Klinsky & J. Timmons Roberts & Henry Shue & Harald Winkler & Tom Athanasiou & Simon Caney & Elizabeth Cripps & Navroz K. Dubash & Galen Hall & Paul G. , 2021. "Ethical choices behind quantifications of fair contributions under the Paris Agreement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 300-305, April.
    16. J.-F. Mercure & H. Pollitt & J. E. Viñuales & N. R. Edwards & P. B. Holden & U. Chewpreecha & P. Salas & I. Sognnaes & A. Lam & F. Knobloch, 2018. "Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 588-593, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas Klasen & Roseline Wanjiru & Jenni Henderson & Josh Phillips, 2022. "Export finance and the green transition," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 710-720, November.
    2. Lou, Jiehong & Hu, Guangxiao & Shen, Xingchi & Cui, Ryna Yiyun, 2025. "Quantifying the economy-wide employment effects of coal-fired power plants: Two different cases China and the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PC).
    3. Guillermo MONTT & Kirsten S. WIEBE & Marek HARSDORFF & Moana SIMAS & Antoine BONNET & Richard WOOD, 2018. "Does climate action destroy jobs? An assessment of the employment implications of the 2‐degree goal," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(4), pages 519-556, December.
    4. Dirk-Jan Koch, 2022. "Do transactions to tax havens and corruption attract officially supported export credit? Evidence from three European export credit agencies," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Xia, Ying & Chen, Muyang, 2023. "The Janus face of stateness: China's development-oriented equity investments in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Klooster, Jens van 't & van Tilburg, Rens, 2020. "Targeting a sustainable recovery with Green TLTROs," SocArXiv 2bx8h_v1, Center for Open Science.
    7. Guo, Yating & Rosland, Anitha & Ishak, Suryati & Muhammad Senan, Mohammad Khair Afham, 2023. "Public spending and natural resources development: A way toward green economic growth in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    8. Thomas Hahn & Johannes Morfeldt & Robert Höglund & Mikael Karlsson & Ingo Fetzer, 2024. "Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Sumarno, Theresia B. & Sihotang, Parulian & Prawiraatmadja, Widhyawan, 2022. "Exploring Indonesia's energy policy failures through the JUST framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Müller-Hansen, Finn & Lee, Yuan Ting & Callaghan, Max & Jankin, Slava & Minx, Jan C., 2022. "The German coal debate on Twitter: Reactions to a corporate policy process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    11. Monasterolo, Irene & de Angelis, Luca, 2020. "Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market reaction to the Paris Agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    13. Cholapat Jongdeepaisal & Seigo Nasu, 2018. "Economic Impact Evaluation of a Biomass Power Plant Using a Technical Coefficient Pre-Adjustment in Hybrid Input-Output Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-11, March.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Xu, Bin, 2018. "How to promote the growth of new energy industry at different stages?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 390-403.
    15. Kemfert, Claudia & Präger, Fabian & Braunger, Isabell & Hoffart, Franziska M. & Brauers, Hanna, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 582-587.
    16. Florian Egli & Churchill Agutu & Bjarne Steffen & Tobias S. Schmidt, 2023. "The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Gupta, Rakesh & Haddad, Sama & Selvanathan, E.A., 2024. "Global power and Stock market co-movements: A study of G20 markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Tobias Mueller & Steven Gronau, 2023. "Fostering Macroeconomic Research on Hydrogen-Powered Aviation: A Systematic Literature Review on General Equilibrium Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    19. Francesco Macheda, 2022. "Industrial Policies and State-Owned Enterprises: The Foundations of China’s Path Towards Decarbonization," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 581-619.
    20. Cao, R. & Huang, G.H. & Chen, J.P. & Li, Y.P. & He, C.Y., 2021. "A chance-constrained urban agglomeration energy model for cooperative carbon emission management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-55981-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.