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A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC

Author

Listed:
  • Gokul Iyer

    (University of Maryland)

  • Alicia Zhao

    (University of Maryland)

  • Adriana Bryant

    (University of Maryland)

  • John Bistline

    (EPRI)

  • Geoffrey Blanford

    (EPRI)

  • Ryna Cui

    (University of Maryland)

  • Allen A. Fawcett

    (University of Maryland)

  • Rachel Goldstein

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Amanda Levin

    (Natural Resources Defense Council)

  • Megan Mahajan

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Haewon McJeon

    (KAIST Graduate School of Green Growth & Sustainability)

  • Robbie Orvis

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Nathan Hultman

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

In 2025, countries are expected to submit a third round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that outline emission reduction goals for 2035. These new NDCs will be important for global alignment with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. Setting an ambitious and plausible 2035 NDC in the United States (US) could be crucial in motivating high levels of ambition globally. This study brings together four US modeling teams to show that an expanded set of federal and state policies beyond current policies could achieve economy-wide emissions reductions of 56-67% below 2005 levels by 2035. By contrast, current policies result in 34-44% reductions. These potential policies significantly close the gap relative to the official US pledge. They also imply 2-4 times increase in renewable capacity additions, 73-100% reduction in electricity generation from unabated fossil fuels, and 83-100% share of electric vehicles in new vehicles sales. This study provides a framework for decisionmakers to use modeling as an input to inform ambitious and plausible pledges.

Suggested Citation

  • Gokul Iyer & Alicia Zhao & Adriana Bryant & John Bistline & Geoffrey Blanford & Ryna Cui & Allen A. Fawcett & Rachel Goldstein & Amanda Levin & Megan Mahajan & Haewon McJeon & Robbie Orvis & Nathan Hu, 2025. "A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-55858-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-55858-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew G. Burgess & Leaf Boven & Gernot Wagner & Gabrielle Wong-Parodi & Kyri Baker & Maxwell Boykoff & Benjamin A. Converse & Lisa Dilling & Jonathan M. Gilligan & Yoel Inbar & Ezra Markowitz & Jona, 2024. "Supply, demand and polarization challenges facing US climate policies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(2), pages 134-142, February.
    2. Elmar Kriegler & John Weyant & Geoffrey Blanford & Volker Krey & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds & Allen Fawcett & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Richard Richels & Steven Rose & Massimo Tavoni & Detlef Vuu, 2014. "The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 353-367, April.
    3. Jonas Meckling & Thomas Sterner & Gernot Wagner, 2017. "Policy sequencing toward decarbonization," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 918-922, December.
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