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An assessment of China’s methane mitigation potential and costs and uncertainties through 2060

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Listed:
  • Nina Khanna

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Jiang Lin

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
    University of California at Berkeley)

  • Xu Liu

    (Peking University)

  • Wenjun Wang

    (University of California at Berkeley)

Abstract

China, the world’s largest methane emitter, is increasingly focused on methane mitigation in support of its climate goals, but gaps exist in the understanding of key methane sources, as well as mitigation opportunities and their associated uncertainties. We use a bottom-up modeling approach with updated methane emission projections and abatement cost analysis to account for additional sources, uncertainties, and mitigation measures in China’s energy and agricultural sectors. Here we show the significant cost-effective potential for reducing methane emissions in China by 2030, with 660 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent possible with average negative abatement costs of US$6.40 per tonne CO2e. Most of this potential exists in the energy sector, particularly coal mining, but the greater potential will shift towards agriculture by 2060. Aquaculture and biochar applications in rice cultivation have net economic benefits but need greater support for deployment, while new mitigation measures will be needed for remaining emissions from enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, and wastewater.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Khanna & Jiang Lin & Xu Liu & Wenjun Wang, 2024. "An assessment of China’s methane mitigation potential and costs and uncertainties through 2060," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-54038-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54038-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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