IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-53645-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects

Author

Listed:
  • Benedict S. Probst

    (Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition
    ETH Zurich
    University of Cambridge)

  • Malte Toetzke

    (Max Planck Institute for Innovation and Competition
    Technical University of Munich)

  • Andreas Kontoleon

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Laura Díaz Anadón

    (University of Cambridge
    Harvard University)

  • Jan C. Minx

    (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
    Priestley International Centre for Climate, School of Earth and Environment)

  • Barbara K. Haya

    (University of California)

  • Lambert Schneider

    (Öko-Institut)

  • Philipp A. Trotter

    (University of Wuppertal
    University of Oxford)

  • Thales A. P. West

    (University of Cambridge
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Annelise Gill-Wiehl

    (University of California)

  • Volker H. Hoffmann

    (ETH Zurich)

Abstract

Carbon markets play an important role in firms’ and governments’ climate strategies. Carbon crediting mechanisms allow project developers to earn carbon credits through mitigation projects. Several studies have raised concerns about environmental integrity, though a systematic evaluation is missing. We synthesized studies relying on experimental or rigorous observational methods, covering 14 studies on 2346 carbon mitigation projects and 51 studies investigating similar field interventions implemented without issuing carbon credits. The analysis covers one-fifth of the credit volume issued to date, almost 1 billion tons of CO2e. We estimate that less than 16% of the carbon credits issued to the investigated projects constitute real emission reductions, with 11% for cookstoves, 16% for SF6 destruction, 25% for avoided deforestation, 68% for HFC-23 abatement, and no statistically significant emission reductions from wind power and improved forest management projects. Carbon crediting mechanisms need to be reformed fundamentally to meaningfully contribute to climate change mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Benedict S. Probst & Malte Toetzke & Andreas Kontoleon & Laura Díaz Anadón & Jan C. Minx & Barbara K. Haya & Lambert Schneider & Philipp A. Trotter & Thales A. P. West & Annelise Gill-Wiehl & Volker H, 2024. "Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53645-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53645-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53645-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-53645-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brooks, N. & Bhojvaid, V. & Jeuland, M.A. & Lewis, J.J. & Patange, O. & Pattanayak, S.K., 2016. "How much do alternative cookstoves reduce biomass fuel use? Evidence from North India," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 153-171.
    2. Tara Ramanathan & Nithya Ramanathan & Jeevan Mohanty & Ibrahim H. Rehman & Eric Graham & Veerabhadran Ramanathan, 2017. "Wireless sensors linked to climate financing for globally affordable clean cooking," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 44-47, January.
    3. Lambert Richard Schneider, 2011. "Perverse incentives under the CDM: an evaluation of HFC-23 destruction projects," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 851-864, March.
    4. Lambert Schneider, 2009. "Assessing the additionality of CDM projects: practical experiences and lessons learned," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 242-254, May.
    5. Theresa Beltramo & David I. Levine, 2013. "The effect of solar ovens on fuel use, emissions and health: results from a randomised controlled trial," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 178-207, June.
    6. Bensch, Gunther & Peters, Jörg, 2015. "The intensive margin of technology adoption – Experimental evidence on improved cooking stoves in rural Senegal," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 44-63.
    7. Simons, Andrew M. & Beltramo, Theresa & Blalock, Garrick & Levine, David I., 2017. "Using unobtrusive sensors to measure and minimize Hawthorne effects: Evidence from cookstoves," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 68-80.
    8. Barbara Haya & Danny Cullenward & Aaron L. Strong & Emily Grubert & Robert Heilmayr & Deborah A. Sivas & Michael Wara, 2020. "Managing uncertainty in carbon offsets: insights from California’s standardized approach," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(9), pages 1112-1126, October.
    9. Sven Wunder & Jan Börner & Driss Ezzine-de-Blas & Sarah Feder & Stefano Pagiola, 2020. "Payments for Environmental Services: Past Performance and Pending Potentials," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 209-234, October.
    10. Gunther Bensch & Jörg Peters, 2013. "Alleviating Deforestation Pressures? Impacts of Improved Stove Dissemination on Charcoal Consumption in Urban Senegal," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 676-698.
    11. Tarun M. Khanna & Giovanni Baiocchi & Max Callaghan & Felix Creutzig & Horia Guias & Neal R. Haddaway & Lion Hirth & Aneeque Javaid & Nicolas Koch & Sonja Laukemper & Andreas Löschel & Maria del Mar Z, 2021. "A multi-country meta-analysis on the role of behavioural change in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in residential buildings," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 925-932, September.
    12. Lambert Schneider & Anja Kollmuss, 2015. "Perverse effects of carbon markets on HFC-23 and SF6 abatement projects in Russia," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1061-1063, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gunther Bensch & Jörg Peters, 2020. "One‐Off Subsidies and Long‐Run Adoption—Experimental Evidence on Improved Cooking Stoves in Senegal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 72-90, January.
    2. Raphael Calel & Jonathan Colmer & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Matthieu Glachant, 2021. "Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9368, CESifo.
    3. Bensch, Gunther & Kluve, Jochen & Stöterau, Jonathan, 2021. "The market-based dissemination of energy-access technologies as a business model for rural entrepreneurs: Evidence from Kenya," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Beyene, Abebe D. & Bluffstone, Randall & Martinsson, Peter & Mekonnen, Alemu & Toman, Michael A., 2018. "Fuel savings, cooking time and user satisfaction with improved biomass cookstoves: Evidence from controlled cooking tests in Ethiopia," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 173-185.
    5. Jeuland, Marc & Tan Soo, Jie-Sheng & Shindell, Drew, 2018. "The need for policies to reduce the costs of cleaner cooking in low income settings: Implications from systematic analysis of costs and benefits," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 275-285.
    6. Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke & Chinyere Augusta Nwajiuba & Jane Munonye & Uwazie Iyke Uwazie & Nkechinyere Uwajumogu & Christian Obioma Uwadoka & Jonathan Ogbeni Aligbe, 2019. "Improved Cook-stoves and Environmental and Health Outcomes: Lessons from Cross River State, Nigeria," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Heath Milsom, Luke & Roland, Isabelle, 2021. "Minimum wages and the China syndrome: causal evidence from US local labor markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Erickson, Peter & Lazarus, Michael & Spalding-Fecher, Randall, 2014. "Net climate change mitigation of the Clean Development Mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 146-154.
    9. Alistair Munro, 2021. "Comment on “Green Innovation and Finance in Asia”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 88-89, January.
    10. Bonan, Jacopo & Battiston, Pietro & Bleck, Jaimie & LeMay-Boucher, Philippe & Pareglio, Stefano & Sarr, Bassirou & Tavoni, Massimo, 2021. "Social interaction and technology adoption: Experimental evidence from improved cookstoves in Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Jeuland, Marc & Fetter, T. Robert & Li, Yating & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Usmani, Faraz & Bluffstone, Randall A. & Chávez, Carlos & Girardeau, Hannah & Hassen, Sied & Jagger, Pamela & Jaime, Mónica , 2021. "Is energy the golden thread? A systematic review of the impacts of modern and traditional energy use in low- and middle-income countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Ipsita Das & Jessica J Lewis & Ramona Ludolph & Melanie Bertram & Heather Adair-Rohani & Marc Jeuland, 2021. "The benefits of action to reduce household air pollution (BAR-HAP) model: A new decision support tool," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Yuya KUDO & Abu S. Shonchoy & Kazushi Takahashi, 2019. "Short-Term Impacts of Solar Lanterns on Child Health: Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(11), pages 2329-2346, November.
    14. Paul J. Burke, 2016. "Undermined by Adverse Selection: Australia's Direct Action Abatement Subsidies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(3), pages 216-229, September.
    15. Krishnapriya, P.P. & Chandrasekaran, Maya & Jeuland, Marc & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K., 2021. "Do improved cookstoves save time and improve gender outcomes? Evidence from six developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Bensch, Gunther & Grimm, Michael & Peters, Jörg, 2014. "Why Do Households Forego High Returns from Technology Adoption - Evidence from Improved Cook Stoves in Burkina Faso," Ruhr Economic Papers 498, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Faraz Usmani & Marc Jeuland & Subhrendu K. Pattanayak, 2018. "NGOs and the effectiveness of interventions," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-59, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Baranzini, Andrea & Borzykowski, Nicolas & Carattini, Stefano, 2018. "Carbon offsets out of the woods? Acceptability of domestic vs. international reforestation programmes in the lab," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-12.
    19. Gould, Carlos F. & Urpelainen, Johannes, 2018. "LPG as a clean cooking fuel: Adoption, use, and impact in rural India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 395-408.
    20. Talevi, Marta & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Das, Ipsita & Lewis, Jessica J. & Singha, Ashok K., 2022. "Speaking from experience: Preferences for cooking with biogas in rural India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53645-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.