Multi-level emission impacts of electrification and coal pathways in China's netzero transition

Decarbonizing China's energy system necessitates both greening the power supply and end-use electrification. However, there are concerns that electrification may be premature while coal power dominates. Using a global climate mitigation model, we examine multiple high electrification scenarios with different coal phase-out timelines. On an aggregate level, the pace of Chinese power sector decarbonization is climate significant. A ten-year delay in coal phase-out could alone increase global warming by around 0.011{\deg}C. However, on energy service and sectoral level there is no evidence of large-scale premature electrification even under slower coal phase-out. This challenges the sequential interpretation of the "order of abatement" - electrification can begin only when the power sector is almost decarbonized. As long as power emission intensity reduces to below 150 kgCO2/MWh by 2040, even with the current power supply mix, early scale-up of electrification brings a huge gain in CO2 abatement in the medium- to long-term, equivalent to approximately 0.04{\deg}C avoided warming.