IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-50467-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Maternal preconceptional and prenatal exposure to El Niño Southern Oscillation levels and child mortality: a multi-country study

Author

Listed:
  • Hongbing Xu

    (Peking University School of Public Health
    Peking University Institute of Environmental Medicine)

  • Castiel Chen Zhuang

    (Peking University School of Economics)

  • Vanessa M. Oddo

    (University of Illinois Chicago)

  • Espoir Bwenge Malembaka

    (Université Catholique de Bukavu
    Université Catholique de Bukavu
    Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Xinghou He

    (Peking University School of Public Health
    Peking University Institute of Environmental Medicine)

  • Qinghong Zhang

    (Peking University)

  • Wei Huang

    (Peking University School of Public Health
    Peking University Institute of Environmental Medicine)

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been shown to relate to the epidemiology of childhood infectious diseases, but evidence for whether they increase child deaths is limited. Here, we investigate the impact of mothers’ ENSO exposure during and prior to delivery on child mortality by constructing a retrospective cohort study in 38 low- and middle-income countries. We find that high levels of ENSO indices cumulated over 0–12 lagged months before delivery are associated with significant increases in risks of under-five mortality; with the hazard ratio ranging from 1.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26, 1.40) to 1.89 (95% CI, 1.78, 2.00). Child mortality risks are particularly related to maternal exposure to El Niño-like conditions in the 0th–1st and 6th–12th lagged months. The El Niño effects are larger in rural populations and those with unsafe sources of drinking water and less education. Thus, preventive interventions are particularly warranted for the socio-economically disadvantaged.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongbing Xu & Castiel Chen Zhuang & Vanessa M. Oddo & Espoir Bwenge Malembaka & Xinghou He & Qinghong Zhang & Wei Huang, 2024. "Maternal preconceptional and prenatal exposure to El Niño Southern Oscillation levels and child mortality: a multi-country study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-50467-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50467-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50467-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-50467-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    2. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
    3. Jitendra Singh & Moetasim Ashfaq & Christopher B. Skinner & Weston B. Anderson & Vimal Mishra & Deepti Singh, 2022. "Author Correction: Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(4), pages 408-408, April.
    4. Gasparrini, Antonio, 2011. "Distributed Lag Linear and Non-Linear Models in R: The Package dlnm," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i08).
    5. Jitendra Singh & Moetasim Ashfaq & Christopher B. Skinner & Weston B. Anderson & Vimal Mishra & Deepti Singh, 2022. "Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 163-170, February.
    6. Vinicius J. B. Martins & Telma M. M. Toledo Florêncio & Luciane P. Grillo & Maria Do Carmo P. Franco & Paula A. Martins & Ana Paula G. Clemente & Carla D. L. Santos & Maria de Fatima A. Vieira & Ana L, 2011. "Long-Lasting Effects of Undernutrition," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-30, May.
    7. Jesse K. Anttila-Hughes & Amir S. Jina & Gordon C. McCord, 2021. "ENSO impacts child undernutrition in the global tropics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Pin Wang & Ernest Asare & Virginia E. Pitzer & Robert Dubrow & Kai Chen, 2022. "Associations between long-term drought and diarrhea among children under five in low- and middle-income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Yonghong Liu & Hui Ding & Shu-ting Chang & Ran Lu & Hui Zhong & Na Zhao & Tzu-Hsuan Lin & Yiming Bao & Liwei Yap & Weijia Xu & Minyi Wang & Yuan Li & Shuwen Qin & Yu Zhao & Xingyi Geng & Supen Wang & , 2020. "Exposure to air pollution and scarlet fever resurgence in China: a six-year surveillance study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu Liu & Yong Guo & Changbing Wang & Weidong Li & Jinhua Lu & Songying Shen & Huimin Xia & Jianrong He & Xiu Qiu, 2015. "Association between Temperature Change and Outpatient Visits for Respiratory Tract Infections among Children in Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Seonhui Noh & Seungyub Lee, 2024. "Forecasting Meteorological Drought Conditions in South Korea Using a Data-Driven Model with Lagged Global Climate Variability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Michael Tong & Berhanu Wondmagegn & Jianjun Xiang & Alana Hansen & Keith Dear & Dino Pisaniello & Blesson Varghese & Jianguo Xiao & Le Jian & Benjamin Scalley & Monika Nitschke & John Nairn & Hilary B, 2022. "Hospitalization Costs of Respiratory Diseases Attributable to Temperature in Australia and Projections for Future Costs in the 2030s and 2050s under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Insa Thiele-Eich & Katrin Burkart & Clemens Simmer, 2015. "Trends in Water Level and Flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and Their Impact on Mortality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Lin Zhu & Zhongshang Yuan & Xianjun Wang & Jie Li & Lu Wang & Yunxia Liu & Fuzhong Xue & Yanxun Liu, 2015. "The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Childhood HFMD Incidence in Inland and Coastal Area: A Two-City Study in Shandong Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    7. Bing Li & Zhifeng Liu & Ying Nan & Shengnan Li & Yanmin Yang, 2018. "Comparative Analysis of Urban Heat Island Intensities in Chinese, Russian, and DPRK Regions across the Transnational Urban Agglomeration of the Tumen River in Northeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, July.
    8. Rui Wang & Naihua Xiu & Kim-Chuan Toh, 2021. "Subspace quadratic regularization method for group sparse multinomial logistic regression," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 79(3), pages 531-559, July.
    9. Mkhadri, Abdallah & Ouhourane, Mohamed, 2013. "An extended variable inclusion and shrinkage algorithm for correlated variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 631-644.
    10. Chen, Le-Yu & Lee, Sokbae, 2018. "Best subset binary prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(1), pages 39-56.
    11. Yunquan Zhang & Chuanhua Yu & Jin Yang & Lan Zhang & Fangfang Cui, 2017. "Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    12. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    13. Sung Jae Jun & Sokbae Lee, 2024. "Causal Inference Under Outcome-Based Sampling with Monotonicity Assumptions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 998-1009, July.
    14. Xiangwei Li & Thomas Delerue & Ben Schöttker & Bernd Holleczek & Eva Grill & Annette Peters & Melanie Waldenberger & Barbara Thorand & Hermann Brenner, 2022. "Derivation and validation of an epigenetic frailty risk score in population-based cohorts of older adults," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Christopher J Greenwood & George J Youssef & Primrose Letcher & Jacqui A Macdonald & Lauryn J Hagg & Ann Sanson & Jenn Mcintosh & Delyse M Hutchinson & John W Toumbourou & Matthew Fuller-Tyszkiewicz &, 2020. "A comparison of penalised regression methods for informing the selection of predictive markers," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, November.
    16. Heng Chen & Daniel F. Heitjan, 2022. "Analysis of local sensitivity to nonignorability with missing outcomes and predictors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 78(4), pages 1342-1352, December.
    17. Nicolas Taconet & Aurélie Méjean & Céline Guivarch, 2020. "Influence of climate change impacts and mitigation costs on inequality between countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 15-34, May.
    18. S Ariane Christie & Amanda S Conroy & Rachael A Callcut & Alan E Hubbard & Mitchell J Cohen, 2019. "Dynamic multi-outcome prediction after injury: Applying adaptive machine learning for precision medicine in trauma," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-13, April.
    19. Zhu Wang, 2022. "MM for penalized estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(1), pages 54-75, March.
    20. Ida Kubiszewski & Kenneth Mulder & Diane Jarvis & Robert Costanza, 2022. "Toward better measurement of sustainable development and wellbeing: A small number of SDG indicators reliably predict life satisfaction," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 139-148, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-50467-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.