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Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Author

Listed:
  • Jitendra Singh

    (Washington State University)

  • Moetasim Ashfaq

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Christopher B. Skinner

    (University of Massachusetts Lowell)

  • Weston B. Anderson

    (Columbia University)

  • Vimal Mishra

    (Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar
    Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar)

  • Deepti Singh

    (Washington State University)

Abstract

Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. Here we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound droughts increases by ~40% and ~60% by the middle and late twenty-first century, respectively, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes contribute to an approximately ninefold increase in agricultural area and population exposure to severe compound droughts with continued fossil-fuel dependence. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Niño or La Niña conditions. With ENSO teleconnections remaining largely stationary in the future, a ~22% increase in frequency of ENSO events combined with projected warming drives the elevated risk of compound droughts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jitendra Singh & Moetasim Ashfaq & Christopher B. Skinner & Weston B. Anderson & Vimal Mishra & Deepti Singh, 2022. "Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 163-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01276-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01276-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Seonhui Noh & Seungyub Lee, 2024. "Forecasting Meteorological Drought Conditions in South Korea Using a Data-Driven Model with Lagged Global Climate Variability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Hongbing Xu & Castiel Chen Zhuang & Vanessa M. Oddo & Espoir Bwenge Malembaka & Xinghou He & Qinghong Zhang & Wei Huang, 2024. "Maternal preconceptional and prenatal exposure to El Niño Southern Oscillation levels and child mortality: a multi-country study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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