IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-48280-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas J. Leach

    (University of Oxford
    Climate X Ltd.)

  • Christopher D. Roberts

    (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • Matthias Aengenheyster

    (University of Oxford
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • Daniel Heathcote

    (University of Oxford
    University of Bristol)

  • Dann M. Mitchell

    (University of Bristol)

  • Vikki Thompson

    (University of Bristol
    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Tim Palmer

    (University of Oxford)

  • Antje Weisheimer

    (University of Oxford
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
    University of Oxford)

  • Myles R. Allen

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

Abstract

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches to extreme weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems are demonstrably able to simulate the detailed physics of the heatwave. Here, we leverage these systems to show that human influence on the climate made this event at least 8 [2–50] times more likely. At the current rate of global warming, the likelihood of such an event is doubling every 20 [10–50] years. Given the multi-decade lower-bound return-time implied by the length of the historical record, this rate of change in likelihood is highly relevant for decision makers. Further, forecast-based attribution can synthesise the conditional event-specific storyline and unconditional event-class probabilistic approaches to attribution. If developed as a routine service in forecasting centres, it could provide reliable estimates of human influence on extreme weather risk, which is critical to supporting effective adaptation planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas J. Leach & Christopher D. Roberts & Matthias Aengenheyster & Daniel Heathcote & Dann M. Mitchell & Vikki Thompson & Tim Palmer & Antje Weisheimer & Myles R. Allen, 2024. "Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48280-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48280-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanya Fiedler & Andy J. Pitman & Kate Mackenzie & Nick Wood & Christian Jakob & Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2021. "Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 87-94, February.
    2. Dann Mitchell, 2021. "Climate attribution of heat mortality," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 467-468, June.
    3. Vikki Thompson & Nick J. Dunstone & Adam A. Scaife & Doug M. Smith & Julia M. Slingo & Simon Brown & Stephen E. Belcher, 2017. "High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-6, December.
    4. Anna Maria Barlow & Chris Sherlock & Jonathan Tawn, 2020. "Inference for extreme values under threshold‐based stopping rules," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(4), pages 765-789, August.
    5. W. Hazeleger & B.J.J.M. van den Hurk & E. Min & G.J. van Oldenborgh & A.C. Petersen & D.A. Stainforth & E. Vasileiadou & L.A. Smith, 2015. "Tales of future weather," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 107-113, February.
    6. Theodore G. Shepherd & Emily Boyd & Raphael A. Calel & Sandra C. Chapman & Suraje Dessai & Ioana M. Dima-West & Hayley J. Fowler & Rachel James & Douglas Maraun & Olivia Martius & Catherine A. Senior , 2018. "Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 555-571, December.
    7. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. W. Hazeleger & B. J. J. M. van den Hurk & E. Min & G. J. van Oldenborgh & A. C. Petersen & D. A. Stainforth & E. Vasileiadou & L. A. Smith, 2015. "Erratum: Tales of future weather," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 280-280, March.
    9. Myles R. Allen & William J. Ingram, 2002. "Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 419(6903), pages 224-232, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & L. Bloin-Wibe & C. Gessner & V. Humphrey & F. Lehner & A. G. Pendergrass & S. Sippel & J. Zeder & R. Knutti, 2023. "Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Christine M. Albano & Maureen I. McCarthy & Michael D. Dettinger & Stephanie A. McAfee, 2021. "Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-25, February.
    4. Marina Baldissera Pacchetti & Suraje Dessai & David A. Stainforth & Seamus Bradley, 2021. "Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-25, September.
    5. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Kuik, Onno & Zhou, Fujin & Ciullo, Alessio & Brusselaers, Jan, 2022. "How vulnerable is Europe to severe climate-related natural disasters abroad? A dynamic CGE analysis of the international financial and economic impacts of a large hurricane in the southern USA," Conference papers 333438, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Declan Conway & Robert J. Nicholls & Sally Brown & Mark G. L. Tebboth & William Neil Adger & Bashir Ahmad & Hester Biemans & Florence Crick & Arthur F. Lutz & Ricardo Safra Campos & Mohammed Said & Ch, 2019. "The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 503-511, July.
    8. Douglas Maraun & Reinhard Schiemann & Albert Ossó & Martin Jury, 2025. "Changes in event soil moisture-temperature coupling can intensify very extreme heat beyond expectations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Patrycja Klusak & Matthew Agarwala & Matt Burke & Moritz Kraemer & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2023. "Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7468-7491, December.
    10. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Baoni Li & Lihua Xiong & Quan Zhang & Shilei Chen & Han Yang & Shuhui Guo, 2022. "Effects of land use/cover change on atmospheric humidity in three urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 577-613, August.
    12. Peng Jiang & Zhongbo Yu & Mahesh R. Gautam & Kumud Acharya, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4807-4821, October.
    13. Victor Cardenas, 2024. "Managing Financial Climate Risk in Banking Services: A Review of Current Practices and the Challenges Ahead," Papers 2405.17682, arXiv.org.
    14. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    16. Bing-Chen Jhong & Ching-Pin Tung, 2018. "Evaluating Future Joint Probability of Precipitation Extremes with a Copula-Based Assessing Approach in Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(13), pages 4253-4274, October.
    17. Megan Ceronsky & David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Checking The Price Tag On Catastrophe: The Social Cost Of Carbon Under Non-Linear Climate Response," Working Papers FNU-87, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005.
    18. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    19. Veruska Muccione & Thomas Lontzek & Christian Huggel & Philipp Ott & Nadine Salzmann, 2023. "An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 523-544, October.
    20. Natalie Teale & David A. Robinson, 2022. "Long-term variability in atmospheric moisture transport and relationship with heavy precipitation in the eastern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-23, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48280-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.