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Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas J. Leach

    (University of Oxford
    Climate X Ltd.)

  • Christopher D. Roberts

    (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • Matthias Aengenheyster

    (University of Oxford
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)

  • Daniel Heathcote

    (University of Oxford
    University of Bristol)

  • Dann M. Mitchell

    (University of Bristol)

  • Vikki Thompson

    (University of Bristol
    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Tim Palmer

    (University of Oxford)

  • Antje Weisheimer

    (University of Oxford
    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
    University of Oxford)

  • Myles R. Allen

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

Abstract

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches to extreme weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems are demonstrably able to simulate the detailed physics of the heatwave. Here, we leverage these systems to show that human influence on the climate made this event at least 8 [2–50] times more likely. At the current rate of global warming, the likelihood of such an event is doubling every 20 [10–50] years. Given the multi-decade lower-bound return-time implied by the length of the historical record, this rate of change in likelihood is highly relevant for decision makers. Further, forecast-based attribution can synthesise the conditional event-specific storyline and unconditional event-class probabilistic approaches to attribution. If developed as a routine service in forecasting centres, it could provide reliable estimates of human influence on extreme weather risk, which is critical to supporting effective adaptation planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas J. Leach & Christopher D. Roberts & Matthias Aengenheyster & Daniel Heathcote & Dann M. Mitchell & Vikki Thompson & Tim Palmer & Antje Weisheimer & Myles R. Allen, 2024. "Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-48280-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7
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