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Tales of future weather

Author

Listed:
  • W. Hazeleger

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
    Wageningen University
    Netherlands eScience Center (NLeSC))

  • B.J.J.M. van den Hurk

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
    VU University Amsterdam)

  • E. Min

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • G.J. van Oldenborgh

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • A.C. Petersen

    (VU University Amsterdam
    University College London)

  • D.A. Stainforth

    (London School of Economics and Political Science
    University of Warwick
    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • E. Vasileiadou

    (VU University Amsterdam
    School of Innovation Sciences, Eindhoven University of Technology)

  • L.A. Smith

    (London School of Economics and Political Science
    Oxford University, Pembroke College)

Abstract

Projections and predictions of future climate today generally rely on ensembles of climate model simulations. This Perspective advocates a radically different approach, using numerical weather predictions and knowledge of past weather events.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Hazeleger & B.J.J.M. van den Hurk & E. Min & G.J. van Oldenborgh & A.C. Petersen & D.A. Stainforth & E. Vasileiadou & L.A. Smith, 2015. "Tales of future weather," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 107-113, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:5:y:2015:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate2450
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2450
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    Cited by:

    1. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Qiumei Ma & Lihua Xiong & Chong-Yu Xu & Rongrong Li & Changming Ji & Yanke Zhang, 2021. "Flood Wave Superposition Analysis Using Quantitative Matching Patterns of Peak Magnitude and Timing in Response to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2409-2432, June.
    3. Declan Conway & Robert J. Nicholls & Sally Brown & Mark G. L. Tebboth & William Neil Adger & Bashir Ahmad & Hester Biemans & Florence Crick & Arthur F. Lutz & Ricardo Safra Campos & Mohammed Said & Ch, 2019. "The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 503-511, July.
    4. Christine M. Albano & Maureen I. McCarthy & Michael D. Dettinger & Stephanie A. McAfee, 2021. "Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Kuik, Onno & Zhou, Fujin & Ciullo, Alessio & Brusselaers, Jan, 2022. "How vulnerable is Europe to severe climate-related natural disasters abroad? A dynamic CGE analysis of the international financial and economic impacts of a large hurricane in the southern USA," Conference papers 333438, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Nicholas J. Leach & Christopher D. Roberts & Matthias Aengenheyster & Daniel Heathcote & Dann M. Mitchell & Vikki Thompson & Tim Palmer & Antje Weisheimer & Myles R. Allen, 2024. "Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & L. Bloin-Wibe & C. Gessner & V. Humphrey & F. Lehner & A. G. Pendergrass & S. Sippel & J. Zeder & R. Knutti, 2023. "Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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