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High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate

Author

Listed:
  • Vikki Thompson

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Nick J. Dunstone

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Adam A. Scaife

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Doug M. Smith

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Julia M. Slingo

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Simon Brown

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Stephen E. Belcher

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall. Here we present analysis of a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated, and that in the current climate there remains a high chance of exceeding the observed record monthly rainfall totals in many regions of the UK. In south east England there is a 7% chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter. Expanding our analysis to some other regions of England and Wales the risk increases to a 34% chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikki Thompson & Nick J. Dunstone & Adam A. Scaife & Doug M. Smith & Julia M. Slingo & Simon Brown & Stephen E. Belcher, 2017. "High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-6, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-00275-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00275-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xu Lin & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Social Cost of Carbon under Climate Volatility Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-032/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Nicholas J. Leach & Christopher D. Roberts & Matthias Aengenheyster & Daniel Heathcote & Dann M. Mitchell & Vikki Thompson & Tim Palmer & Antje Weisheimer & Myles R. Allen, 2024. "Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Auerbach, Jonathan & Wan, Phyllis, 2020. "Forecasting the urban skyline with extreme value theory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 814-828.
    5. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. E. M. Fischer & U. Beyerle & L. Bloin-Wibe & C. Gessner & V. Humphrey & F. Lehner & A. G. Pendergrass & S. Sippel & J. Zeder & R. Knutti, 2023. "Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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