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Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios

Author

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  • Sourangsu Chowdhury

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Sagnik Dey

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Kirk R. Smith

    (University of California Berkeley
    Collaborative Clean Air Policy Centre Delhi)

Abstract

Premature mortality from current ambient fine particulate (PM2.5) exposure in India is large, but the trend under climate change is unclear. Here we estimate ambient PM2.5 exposure up to 2100 by applying the relative changes in PM2.5 from baseline period (2001–2005) derived from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to the satellite-derived baseline PM2.5. We then project the mortality burden using socioeconomic and demographic projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Ambient PM2.5 exposure is expected to peak in 2030 under the RCP4.5 and in 2040 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Premature mortality burden is expected to be 2.4–4 and 28.5–38.8% higher under RCP8.5 scenario relative to the RCP4.5 scenario in 2031–2040 and 2091–2100, respectively. Improved health conditions due to economic growth are expected to compensate for the impact of changes in population and age distribution, leading to a reduction in per capita health burden from PM2.5 for all scenarios except the combination of RCP8.5 exposure and SSP3.

Suggested Citation

  • Sourangsu Chowdhury & Sagnik Dey & Kirk R. Smith, 2018. "Ambient PM2.5 exposure and expected premature mortality to 2100 in India under climate change scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-02755-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02755-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Nilakshi T. Waidyatillake & Patricia T. Campbell & Don Vicendese & Shyamali C. Dharmage & Ariadna Curto & Mark Stevenson, 2021. "Particulate Matter and Premature Mortality: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Ning Xu & Fan Zhang & Xin Xuan, 2021. "Impacts of Industrial Restructuring and Technological Progress on PM 2.5 Pollution: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Camilla W. Stjern & Øivind Hodnebrog & Gunnar Myhre & Ignacio Pisso, 2023. "The turbulent future brings a breath of fresh air," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Ruoyu Lan & Sebastian D. Eastham & Tianjia Liu & Leslie K. Norford & Steven R. H. Barrett, 2022. "Air quality impacts of crop residue burning in India and mitigation alternatives," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Asim Anwar & Inayat Ullah & Mustafa Younis & Antoine Flahault, 2021. "Impact of Air Pollution (PM 2.5 ) on Child Mortality: Evidence from Sixteen Asian Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-13, June.
    6. Fangjin Xu & Qingxu Huang & Huanbi Yue & Xingyun Feng & Haoran Xu & Chunyang He & Peng Yin & Brett A. Bryan, 2023. "The challenge of population aging for mitigating deaths from PM2.5 air pollution in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Guo, Kun & Liu, Fengqi & Sun, Xiaolei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "Predicting natural gas futures’ volatility using climate risks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    8. Huanbi Yue & Chunyang He & Qingxu Huang & Da Zhang & Peijun Shi & Enayat A. Moallemi & Fangjin Xu & Yang Yang & Xin Qi & Qun Ma & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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