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Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Rory Gibb

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    University College London)

  • Felipe J. Colón-González

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    Wellcome Trust)

  • Phan Trong Lan

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Phan Thi Huong

    (Ministry of Health)

  • Vu Sinh Nam

    (National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE))

  • Vu Trong Duoc

    (National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE))

  • Do Thai Hung

    (Pasteur Institute Nha Trang)

  • Nguyễn Thanh Dong

    (Pasteur Institute Nha Trang)

  • Vien Chinh Chien

    (Tay Nguyen Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (TIHE))

  • Ly Thi Thuy Trang

    (Tay Nguyen Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (TIHE))

  • Do Kien Quoc

    (Pasteur Institute Ho Chi Minh City)

  • Tran Minh Hoa

    (Center for Disease Control)

  • Nguyen Hữu Tai

    (Center for Disease Control)

  • Tran Thi Hang

    (Center for Disease Control)

  • Gina Tsarouchi

    (HR Wallingford)

  • Eleanor Ainscoe

    (HR Wallingford)

  • Quillon Harpham

    (HR Wallingford)

  • Barbara Hofmann

    (HR Wallingford)

  • Darren Lumbroso

    (HR Wallingford)

  • Oliver J. Brady

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Rachel Lowe

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC))

Abstract

Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam, through analysing 23 years of district-level case data spanning a period of significant socioeconomic change (1998-2020). We show that urban infrastructure factors (sanitation, water supply, long-term urban growth) predict local spatial patterns of dengue incidence, while human mobility is a more influential driver in subtropical northern regions than the endemic south. Temperature is the dominant factor shaping dengue’s distribution and dynamics, and using long-term reanalysis temperature data we show that warming since 1950 has expanded transmission risk throughout Vietnam, and most strongly in current dengue emergence hotspots (e.g., southern central regions, Ha Noi). In contrast, effects of hydrometeorology are complex, multi-scalar and dependent on local context: risk increases under either short-term precipitation excess or long-term drought, but improvements in water supply mitigate drought-associated risks except under extreme conditions. Our findings challenge the assumption that dengue is an urban disease, instead suggesting that incidence peaks in transitional landscapes with intermediate infrastructure provision, and provide evidence that interactions between recent climate change and mobility are contributing to dengue’s expansion throughout Vietnam.

Suggested Citation

  • Rory Gibb & Felipe J. Colón-González & Phan Trong Lan & Phan Thi Huong & Vu Sinh Nam & Vu Trong Duoc & Do Thai Hung & Nguyễn Thanh Dong & Vien Chinh Chien & Ly Thi Thuy Trang & Do Kien Quoc & Tran Min, 2023. "Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-43954-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43954-0
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    1. Haobo Ni & Xiaoyan Cai & Jiarong Ren & Tingting Dai & Jiayi Zhou & Jiumin Lin & Li Wang & Lingxi Wang & Sen Pei & Yunchong Yao & Ting Xu & Lina Xiao & Qiyong Liu & Xiaobo Liu & Pi Guo, 2024. "Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of dengue fever in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.

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