IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/anresc/v72y2024i4d10.1007_s00168-023-01245-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Honorata Bogusz

    (University of Warsaw)

  • Szymon Winnicki
  • Piotr Wójcik

    (University of Warsaw
    University of Warsaw)

Abstract

This article investigates the spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban municipalities. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and nonlinear predictive models are applied, and Explainable Artificial Intelligence methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. The support vector regression algorithm is found to yield the most accurate predictions of the number of migrants to the suburbs of Warsaw. In addition, we find that migrants choose wealthier and more urbanised municipalities that offer better institutional amenities and a shorter driving time to Warsaw’s city centre.

Suggested Citation

  • Honorata Bogusz & Szymon Winnicki & Piotr Wójcik, 2024. "What factors contribute to uneven suburbanisation? Predicting the number of migrants from Warsaw to its suburbs with machine learning," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1353-1382, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s00168-023-01245-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00168-023-01245-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s00168-023-01245-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.