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Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

Author

Listed:
  • Emma E. Goldberg

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Qianying Lin

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Ethan O. Romero-Severson

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

  • Ruian Ke

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

Abstract

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

Suggested Citation

  • Emma E. Goldberg & Qianying Lin & Ethan O. Romero-Severson & Ruian Ke, 2023. "Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-39638-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39638-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helen J Wearing & Pejman Rohani & Matt J Keeling, 2005. "Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(7), pages 1-1, July.
    2. Pierre Nouvellet & Sangeeta Bhatia & Anne Cori & Kylie E. C. Ainslie & Marc Baguelin & Samir Bhatt & Adhiratha Boonyasiri & Nicholas F. Brazeau & Lorenzo Cattarino & Laura V. Cooper & Helen Coupland &, 2021. "Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jing Wei & Zhanqing Li & Alexei Lyapustin & Jun Wang & Oleg Dubovik & Joel Schwartz & Lin Sun & Chi Li & Song Liu & Tong Zhu, 2023. "First close insight into global daily gapless 1 km PM2.5 pollution, variability, and health impact," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Zhencui Li & Pei Hu & Lin Qu & Mingda Yang & Ming Qiu & Chunyan Xie & Haiyi Yang & Jiadian Cao & Lina Yi & Zhe Liu & Lirong Zou & Huimin Lian & Huiling Zeng & Shaojian Xu & Pengwei Hu & Jiufeng Sun & , 2024. "Molecular epidemiology and population immunity of SARS-CoV-2 in Guangdong (2022–2023) following a pivotal shift in the pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

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