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The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel P. C. Brand

    (The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
    University of Warwick)

  • Massimo Cavallaro

    (The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
    University of Warwick
    University of Warwick)

  • Fergus Cumming

    (United Kingdom Health Security Agency)

  • Charlie Turner

    (United Kingdom Health Security Agency)

  • Isaac Florence

    (United Kingdom Health Security Agency)

  • Paula Blomquist

    (United Kingdom Health Security Agency)

  • Joe Hilton

    (The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
    University of Warwick)

  • Laura M. Guzman-Rincon

    (The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
    University of Warwick)

  • Thomas House

    (University of Manchester)

  • D. James Nokes

    (The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
    University of Warwick)

  • Matt J. Keeling

    (The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)
    University of Warwick
    University of Warwick)

Abstract

Beginning in May 2022, Mpox virus spread rapidly in high-income countries through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of gay, bisexual and men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may have reduced the rate of transmission and modified Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. We investigate the UK epidemic presenting 26-week projections using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model which includes GBMSM status, rate of formation of new sexual partnerships, and clique partitioning of the population. The Mpox cases peaked in mid-July; our analysis is that the decline was due to decreased transmission rate per infected individual and infection-induced immunity among GBMSM, especially those with the highest rate of new partners. Vaccination did not cause Mpox incidence to turn over, however, we predict that a rebound in cases due to behaviour reversion was prevented by high-risk group-targeted vaccination.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel P. C. Brand & Massimo Cavallaro & Fergus Cumming & Charlie Turner & Isaac Florence & Paula Blomquist & Joe Hilton & Laura M. Guzman-Rincon & Thomas House & D. James Nokes & Matt J. Keeling, 2023. "The role of vaccination and public awareness in forecasts of Mpox incidence in the United Kingdom," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38816-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38816-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lilith K Whittles & Peter J White & Xavier Didelot, 2019. "A dynamic power-law sexual network model of gonorrhoea outbreaks," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Ho Fai Chan & Ahmed Skali & David Savage & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Risk Attitudes and Human Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Papers 2006.06078, arXiv.org.
    3. Matt J. Keeling & Louise Dyson & Michael J. Tildesley & Edward M. Hill & Samuel Moore, 2022. "Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, December.
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