IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-32096-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Eales

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Leonardo Oliveira Martins

    (Quadram Institute)

  • Andrew J. Page

    (Quadram Institute)

  • Haowei Wang

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Barbara Bodinier

    (Imperial College London
    School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • David Tang

    (Imperial College London
    School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

  • David Haw

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Jakob Jonnerby

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Christina Atchison

    (Imperial College London)

  • Deborah Ashby

    (Imperial College London)

  • Wendy Barclay

    (Imperial College London)

  • Graham Taylor

    (Imperial College London)

  • Graham Cooke

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
    National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre)

  • Helen Ward

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
    National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre)

  • Ara Darzi

    (Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
    National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre
    Imperial College London)

  • Steven Riley

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Paul Elliott

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
    National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre)

  • Christl A. Donnelly

    (Imperial College London
    Imperial College London
    University of Oxford)

  • Marc Chadeau-Hyam

    (Imperial College London
    School of Public Health, Imperial College London)

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Eales & Leonardo Oliveira Martins & Andrew J. Page & Haowei Wang & Barbara Bodinier & David Tang & David Haw & Jakob Jonnerby & Christina Atchison & Deborah Ashby & Wendy Barclay & Graham Taylo, 2022. "Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32096-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32096-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32096-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-32096-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Houriiyah Tegally & Eduan Wilkinson & Marta Giovanetti & Arash Iranzadeh & Vagner Fonseca & Jennifer Giandhari & Deelan Doolabh & Sureshnee Pillay & Emmanuel James San & Nokukhanya Msomi & Koleka Mlis, 2021. "Detection of a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa," Nature, Nature, vol. 592(7854), pages 438-443, April.
    2. Natalie Dean, 2022. "Tracking COVID-19 infections: time for change," Nature, Nature, vol. 602(7896), pages 185-185, February.
    3. Raquel Viana & Sikhulile Moyo & Daniel G. Amoako & Houriiyah Tegally & Cathrine Scheepers & Christian L. Althaus & Ugochukwu J. Anyaneji & Phillip A. Bester & Maciej F. Boni & Mohammed Chand & Wonderf, 2022. "Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa," Nature, Nature, vol. 603(7902), pages 679-686, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Whitaker & Joshua Elliott & Barbara Bodinier & Wendy Barclay & Helen Ward & Graham Cooke & Christl A. Donnelly & Marc Chadeau-Hyam & Paul Elliott, 2022. "Variant-specific symptoms of COVID-19 in a study of 1,542,510 adults in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Ighor Arantes & Gonzalo Bello & Valdinete Nascimento & Victor Souza & Arlesson Silva & Dejanane Silva & Fernanda Nascimento & Matilde Mejía & Maria Júlia Brandão & Luciana Gonçalves & George Silva & C, 2023. "Comparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in the Brazilian State of Amazonas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. X. Tong & R. P. McNamara & M. J. Avendaño & E. F. Serrano & T. García-Salum & C. Pardo-Roa & H. L. Bertera & T. M. Chicz & J. Levican & E. Poblete & E. Salinas & A. Muñoz & A. Riquelme & G. Alter & R., 2023. "Waning and boosting of antibody Fc-effector functions upon SARS-CoV-2 vaccination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Meriem Bekliz & Kenneth Adea & Pauline Vetter & Christiane S. Eberhardt & Krisztina Hosszu-Fellous & Diem-Lan Vu & Olha Puhach & Manel Essaidi-Laziosi & Sophie Waldvogel-Abramowski & Caroline Stephan , 2022. "Neutralization capacity of antibodies elicited through homologous or heterologous infection or vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 VOCs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Claudia Del Vecchio & Bethan Cracknell Daniels & Giuseppina Brancaccio & Alessandra Rosalba Brazzale & Enrico Lavezzo & Constanze Ciavarella & Francesco Onelia & Elisa Franchin & Laura Manuto & Federi, 2022. "Impact of antigen test target failure and testing strategies on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Cathrine Scheepers & Josie Everatt & Daniel G. Amoako & Houriiyah Tegally & Constantinos Kurt Wibmer & Anele Mnguni & Arshad Ismail & Boitshoko Mahlangu & Bronwen E. Lambson & Darren P. Martin & Eduan, 2022. "Emergence and phenotypic characterization of the global SARS-CoV-2 C.1.2 lineage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Judith U. Oguzie & Brittany A. Petros & Paul E. Oluniyi & Samar B. Mehta & Philomena E. Eromon & Parvathy Nair & Opeoluwa Adewale-Fasoro & Peace Damilola Ifoga & Ikponmwosa Odia & Andrzej Pastusiak & , 2023. "Metagenomic surveillance uncovers diverse and novel viral taxa in febrile patients from Nigeria," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Kayla G. Barnes & Joshua I. Levy & Jillian Gauld & Jonathan Rigby & Oscar Kanjerwa & Christopher B. Uzzell & Chisomo Chilupsya & Catherine Anscombe & Christopher Tomkins-Tinch & Omar Mbeti & Edward Ca, 2023. "Utilizing river and wastewater as a SARS-CoV-2 surveillance tool in settings with limited formal sewage systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Alvin X. Han & Emma Hannay & Sergio Carmona & Bill Rodriguez & Brooke E. Nichols & Colin A. Russell, 2023. "Estimating the potential impact and diagnostic requirements for SARS-CoV-2 test-and-treat programs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Li Wang & Markus H. Kainulainen & Nannan Jiang & Han Di & Gaston Bonenfant & Lisa Mills & Michael Currier & Punya Shrivastava-Ranjan & Brenda M. Calderon & Mili Sheth & Brian R. Mann & Jaber Hossain &, 2022. "Differential neutralization and inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 variants by antibodies elicited by COVID-19 mRNA vaccines," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Joseph A. Lewnard & Vennis Hong & Jeniffer S. Kim & Sally F. Shaw & Bruno Lewin & Harpreet Takhar & Sara Y. Tartof, 2023. "Association of SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/BA.5 Omicron lineages with immune escape and clinical outcome," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Dapeng Li & David R. Martinez & Alexandra Schäfer & Haiyan Chen & Maggie Barr & Laura L. Sutherland & Esther Lee & Robert Parks & Dieter Mielke & Whitney Edwards & Amanda Newman & Kevin W. Bock & Mahn, 2022. "Breadth of SARS-CoV-2 neutralization and protection induced by a nanoparticle vaccine," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Ighor Arantes & Gonzalo Bello & Valdinete Nascimento & Victor Souza & Arlesson Silva & Dejanane Silva & Fernanda Nascimento & Matilde Mejía & Maria Júlia Brandão & Luciana Gonçalves & George Silva & C, 2023. "Comparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in the Brazilian State of Amazonas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Beatrice Casati & Joseph Peter Verdi & Alexander Hempelmann & Maximilian Kittel & Andrea Gutierrez Klaebisch & Bianca Meister & Sybille Welker & Sonal Asthana & Salvatore Giorgio & Pavle Boskovic & Ka, 2022. "Rapid, adaptable and sensitive Cas13-based COVID-19 diagnostics using ADESSO," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Elizabeth M. Parzych & Jianqiu Du & Ali R. Ali & Katherine Schultheis & Drew Frase & Trevor R. F. Smith & Jiayan Cui & Neethu Chokkalingam & Nicholas J. Tursi & Viviane M. Andrade & Bryce M. Warner & , 2022. "DNA-delivered antibody cocktail exhibits improved pharmacokinetics and confers prophylactic protection against SARS-CoV-2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Fanglei Zuo & Hassan Abolhassani & Likun Du & Antonio Piralla & Federico Bertoglio & Leire Campos-Mata & Hui Wan & Maren Schubert & Irene Cassaniti & Yating Wang & Josè Camilla Sammartino & Rui Sun & , 2022. "Heterologous immunization with inactivated vaccine followed by mRNA-booster elicits strong immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Sapna Sharma & Thomas Vercruysse & Lorena Sanchez-Felipe & Winnie Kerstens & Madina Rasulova & Lindsey Bervoets & Carolien Keyzer & Rana Abdelnabi & Caroline S. Foo & Viktor Lemmens & Dominique Loover, 2022. "Updated vaccine protects against SARS-CoV-2 variants including Omicron (B.1.1.529) and prevents transmission in hamsters," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Emanuele Andreano & Ida Paciello & Silvia Marchese & Lorena Donnici & Giulio Pierleoni & Giulia Piccini & Noemi Manganaro & Elisa Pantano & Valentina Abbiento & Piero Pileri & Linda Benincasa & Ginevr, 2022. "Anatomy of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 neutralizing antibodies in COVID-19 mRNA vaccinees," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    17. Zhennan Zhao & Yufeng Xie & Bin Bai & Chunliang Luo & Jingya Zhou & Weiwei Li & Yumin Meng & Linjie Li & Dedong Li & Xiaomei Li & Xiaoxiong Li & Xiaoyun Wang & Junqing Sun & Zepeng Xu & Yeping Sun & W, 2023. "Structural basis for receptor binding and broader interspecies receptor recognition of currently circulating Omicron sub-variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Kaiyuan Sun & Stefano Tempia & Jackie Kleynhans & Anne Gottberg & Meredith L. McMorrow & Nicole Wolter & Jinal N. Bhiman & Jocelyn Moyes & Maimuna Carrim & Neil A. Martinson & Kathleen Kahn & Limakats, 2023. "Rapidly shifting immunologic landscape and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era in South Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Kuan-Ying A. Huang & Xiaorui Chen & Arpita Mohapatra & Hong Thuy Vy Nguyen & Lisa Schimanski & Tiong Kit Tan & Pramila Rijal & Susan K. Vester & Rory A. Hills & Mark Howarth & Jennifer R. Keeffe & Ale, 2023. "Structural basis for a conserved neutralization epitope on the receptor-binding domain of SARS-CoV-2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Yanqun Wang & An Yan & Deyong Song & Maoqin Duan & Chuangchuang Dong & Jiantao Chen & Zihe Jiang & Yuanzhu Gao & Muding Rao & Jianxia Feng & Zhaoyong Zhang & Ruxi Qi & Xiaomin Ma & Hong Liu & Beibei Y, 2024. "Identification of a highly conserved neutralizing epitope within the RBD region of diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32096-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.