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Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Jörg Schwinger

    (NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Ali Asaadi

    (NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Nadine Goris

    (NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Hanna Lee

    (NORCE Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

It is well established that a collapse or strong reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) would substantially cool the northern high latitudes. Here we show that there is a possibility that such cooling could be amplified under deliberate CO2 removal and result in a temporary undershoot of a targeted temperature level. We find this behaviour in Earth system models that show a strong AMOC decline in response to anthropogenic forcing. Idealized simulations of CO2 removal with one of these models indicate that the timing of negative emissions relative to AMOC decline and recovery is key in setting the strength of the temporary cooling. We show that the pronounced temperature-fluctuations at high northern latitudes found in these simulations would entail considerable consequences for sea-ice and permafrost extent as well as for high latitude ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Jörg Schwinger & Ali Asaadi & Nadine Goris & Hanna Lee, 2022. "Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28573-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28573-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Sigmond & John C. Fyfe & Oleg A. Saenko & Neil C. Swart, 2020. "Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(7), pages 672-677, July.
    2. Katinka Bellomo & Michela Angeloni & Susanna Corti & Jost von Hardenberg, 2021. "Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Rosamond L. Naylor & Ronald W. Hardy & Alejandro H. Buschmann & Simon R. Bush & Ling Cao & Dane H. Klinger & David C. Little & Jane Lubchenco & Sandra E. Shumway & Max Troell, 2021. "A 20-year retrospective review of global aquaculture," Nature, Nature, vol. 591(7851), pages 551-563, March.
    4. Jan Hjort & Olli Karjalainen & Juha Aalto & Sebastian Westermann & Vladimir E. Romanovsky & Frederick E. Nelson & Bernd Etzelmüller & Miska Luoto, 2018. "Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
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