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Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response

Author

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  • Katinka Bellomo

    (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC))

  • Michela Angeloni

    (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC)
    Alma Mater Studiorum - University of Bologna)

  • Susanna Corti

    (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC))

  • Jost von Hardenberg

    (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC)
    Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino)

Abstract

In climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other changes, remain to be identified. Here we address this problem by analyzing 30 idealized abrupt-4xCO2 climate model simulations. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, and continued observational efforts are needed to constrain the AMOC response in future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Katinka Bellomo & Michela Angeloni & Susanna Corti & Jost von Hardenberg, 2021. "Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-24015-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Jörg Schwinger & Ali Asaadi & Nadine Goris & Hanna Lee, 2022. "Possibility for strong northern hemisphere high-latitude cooling under negative emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Qinxue Gu & Melissa Gervais & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Who M. Kim & Frederic Castruccio & Elizabeth Maroon & Shang-Ping Xie, 2024. "Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Simon L. L. Michel & Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Guillaume Gastineau & Juliette Mignot & Gerard McCarthy & Myriam Khodri, 2022. "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.

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