IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-27424-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl

Author

Listed:
  • Shen Yuan

    (Huazhong Agricultural University)

  • Bruce A. Linquist

    (University of California-Davis)

  • Lloyd T. Wilson

    (Texas A&M AgriLife Research Center)

  • Kenneth G. Cassman

    (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

  • Alexander M. Stuart

    (International Rice Research Institute)

  • Valerien Pede

    (International Rice Research Institute)

  • Berta Miro

    (International Rice Research Institute)

  • Kazuki Saito

    (Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice), 01 B.P. 2551)

  • Nurwulan Agustiani

    (Indonesian Center for Rice Research)

  • Vina Eka Aristya

    (Assessment Institute of Agricultural Technology (AIAT) Central Java)

  • Leonardus Y. Krisnadi

    (Assessment Institute of Agricultural Technology (AIAT) East Java)

  • Alencar Junior Zanon

    (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria)

  • Alexandre Bryan Heinemann

    (Santo Antônio de Goiás)

  • Gonzalo Carracelas

    (National Institute of Agricultural Research (INIA)-Road 5, km 386)

  • Nataraja Subash

    (ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research)

  • Pothula S. Brahmanand

    (ICAR-Indian Institute of Water Management)

  • Tao Li

    (Applied GeoSolutions, DNDC Applications Research and Training)

  • Shaobing Peng

    (Huazhong Agricultural University)

  • Patricio Grassini

    (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

Abstract

Future rice systems must produce more grain while minimizing the negative environmental impacts. A key question is how to orient agricultural research & development (R&D) programs at national to global scales to maximize the return on investment. Here we assess yield gap and resource-use efficiency (including water, pesticides, nitrogen, labor, energy, and associated global warming potential) across 32 rice cropping systems covering half of global rice harvested area. We show that achieving high yields and high resource-use efficiencies are not conflicting goals. Most cropping systems have room for increasing yield, resource-use efficiency, or both. In aggregate, current total rice production could be increased by 32%, and excess nitrogen almost eliminated, by focusing on a relatively small number of cropping systems with either large yield gaps or poor resource-use efficiencies. This study provides essential strategic insight on yield gap and resource-use efficiency for prioritizing national and global agricultural R&D investments to ensure adequate rice supply while minimizing negative environmental impact in coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen Yuan & Bruce A. Linquist & Lloyd T. Wilson & Kenneth G. Cassman & Alexander M. Stuart & Valerien Pede & Berta Miro & Kazuki Saito & Nurwulan Agustiani & Vina Eka Aristya & Leonardus Y. Krisnadi &, 2021. "Sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27424-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27424-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27424-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-27424-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jena, K.K. & Hardy, B. (ed.), 2012. "Advances in Temperate Rice Research," IRRI Books, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), number 164415.
    2. Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, January.
    3. Tong, Yen Dan, 2017. "Rice Intensive Cropping and Balanced Cropping in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam — Economic and Ecological Considerations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 205-212.
    4. Xinping Chen & Zhenling Cui & Mingsheng Fan & Peter Vitousek & Ming Zhao & Wenqi Ma & Zhenlin Wang & Weijian Zhang & Xiaoyuan Yan & Jianchang Yang & Xiping Deng & Qiang Gao & Qiang Zhang & Shiwei Guo , 2014. "Producing more grain with lower environmental costs," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7523), pages 486-489, October.
    5. Nanyan Deng & Patricio Grassini & Haishun Yang & Jianliang Huang & Kenneth G. Cassman & Shaobing Peng, 2019. "Closing yield gaps for rice self-sufficiency in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Christian Folberth & Nikolay Khabarov & Juraj Balkovič & Rastislav Skalský & Piero Visconti & Philippe Ciais & Ivan A. Janssens & Josep Peñuelas & Michael Obersteiner, 2020. "The global cropland-sparing potential of high-yield farming," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 281-289, April.
    7. Kenneth G. Cassman & Patricio Grassini, 2020. "A global perspective on sustainable intensification research," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 262-268, April.
    8. Patricio Grassini & Kent M. Eskridge & Kenneth G. Cassman, 2013. "Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Quemada, M. & Lassaletta, L. & Jensen, L.S. & Godinot, O. & Brentrup, F. & Buckley, C. & Foray, S. & Hvid, S.K. & Oenema, J. & Richards, K.G. & Oenema, O., 2020. "Exploring nitrogen indicators of farm performance among farm types across several European case studies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. David J. Hemming & Ephraim W. Chirwa & Andrew Dorward & Holly J. Ruffhead & Rachel Hill & Janice Osborn & Laurenz Langer & Luke Harman & Hiro Asaoka & Chris Coffey & Daniel Phillips, 2018. "Agricultural input subsidies for improving productivity, farm income, consumer welfare and wider growth in low‐ and lower‐middle‐income countries: a systematic review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 1-153.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiu, Bingwen & Jian, Zeyu & Yang, Peng & Tang, Zhenghong & Zhu, Xiaolin & Duan, Mingjie & Yu, Qiangyi & Chen, Xuehong & Zhang, Miao & Tu, Ping & Xu, Weiming & Zhao, Zhiyuan, 2024. "Unveiling grain production patterns in China (2005–2020) towards targeted sustainable intensification," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Traldi, Rebecca & Silva, Julie A. & Potapov, Peter & Tyukavina, Alexandra & Epprecht, Michael & Gore, Meredith L. & Phompila, Chittana, 2023. "Cultivating inequality? Regional rubber dynamics and implications for voluntary sustainability programs in Lao PDR," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Zhou, Zeyu & Jin, Jiming & Liu, Jian & Si, Yajun, 2023. "Optimizing the sowing window for direct-seeded rice (Oryza sativa L.) considering high yield and methane emissions in Central China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Zhang, Junwei & Xiang, Lingxiao & Zhu, Chenxi & Li, Wuqiang & Jing, Dan & Zhang, Lili & Liu, Yong & Li, Tianlai & Li, Jianming, 2023. "Evaluating the irrigation schedules of greenhouse tomato by simulating soil water balance under drip irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Shen Yuan & Kazuki Saito & Pepijn A. J. van Oort & Martin K. van Ittersum & Shaobing Peng & Patricio Grassini, 2024. "Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Becker, Mathias & Clavero, Richelyn & Khin, Ohnmar Min & Kong, Sichantha & Maung, Zar Ni & Men, Punlork & Pariyar, Shyam & Regalado, Manuel José C. & Ro, Sophoanrith & Win, Kyaw Kyaw, 2024. "System shift in rice: Processes and pathways of change in rice-based production systems of Southeast Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Hari Sankar Nayak & Andrew J. McDonald & Virender Kumar & Peter Craufurd & Shantanu Kumar Dubey & Amaresh Kumar Nayak & Chiter Mal Parihar & Panneerselvam Peramaiyan & Shishpal Poonia & Kindie Tesfaye, 2024. "Context-dependent agricultural intensification pathways to increase rice production in India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Weixing Zhao & Jieming Chou & Jiangnan Li & Yuan Xu & Yuanmeng Li & Yidan Hao, 2022. "Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Future Rice Yields in Global Major Rice-Producing Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-12, April.
    9. You Li & Huan Tao & Hongying Cao & Xiaoming Wan & Xiaoyong Liao, 2024. "Achieving synergistic benefits through integrated governance of cultivated cadmium contamination via multistakeholder collaboration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Zhuang, Minghao & Liu, Yize & Yang, Yi & Zhang, Qingsong & Ying, Hao & Yin, Yulong & Cui, Zhenling, 2022. "The sustainability of staple crops in China can be substantially improved through localized strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Qiu, Bingwen & Jian, Zeyu & Yang, Peng & Tang, Zhenghong & Zhu, Xiaolin & Duan, Mingjie & Yu, Qiangyi & Chen, Xuehong & Zhang, Miao & Tu, Ping & Xu, Weiming & Zhao, Zhiyuan, 2024. "Unveiling grain production patterns in China (2005–2020) towards targeted sustainable intensification," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Coronese, Matteo & Occelli, Martina & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "AgriLOVE: Agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    6. Silva, João Vasco & Pede, Valerien O. & Radanielson, Ando M. & Kodama, Wataru & Duarte, Ary & de Guia, Annalyn H. & Malabayabas, Arelene Julia B. & Pustika, Arlyna Budi & Argosubekti, Nuning & Vithoon, 2022. "Revisiting yield gaps and the scope for sustainable intensification for irrigated lowland rice in Southeast Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Hendricks, Nathan P. & Stigler, Matthieu M., 2020. "Global Yield Distributions since 1960," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304570, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Ke, Xinli & Chen, Jing & Zuo, Chengchao & Wang, Xiaoqian, 2024. "The cropland intensive utilisation transition in China: An induced factor substitution perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    10. Serge Savary & Sonia Akter & Conny Almekinders & Jody Harris & Lise Korsten & Reimund Rötter & Stephen Waddington & Derrill Watson, 2020. "Mapping disruption and resilience mechanisms in food systems," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 695-717, August.
    11. Matteo Coronese & Martina Occelli & Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Towards sustainable agriculture: behaviors, spatial dynamics and policy in an evolutionary agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2024/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Bo Sun & Yongming Luo & Dianlin Yang & Jingsong Yang & Yuguo Zhao & Jiabao Zhang, 2023. "Coordinative Management of Soil Resources and Agricultural Farmland Environment for Food Security and Sustainable Development in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-16, February.
    13. repec:ags:aaea22:335783 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:ags:aaea22:335902 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Shen Yuan & Kazuki Saito & Pepijn A. J. van Oort & Martin K. van Ittersum & Shaobing Peng & Patricio Grassini, 2024. "Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    16. Jianjian He & Siqi Wang & Reinout Heijungs & Yi Yang & Shumiao Shu & Weiwen Zhang & Anqi Xu & Kai Fang, 2024. "Interprovincial food trade aggravates China’s land scarcity," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    18. Zhang, He & Tao, Fulu & Zhou, Guangsheng, 2019. "Potential yields, yield gaps, and optimal agronomic management practices for rice production systems in different regions of China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 100-112.
    19. Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel & Tack, Jesse B., 2018. "Another genetic yield revolution is needed to offset climate change effects on U.S. maize," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274380, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Yu, Qiangyi & Wu, Wenbin & You, Liangzhi & Zhu, Tingju & van Vliet, Jasper & Verburg, Peter H. & Liu, Zhenhuan & Li, Zhengguo & Yang, Peng & Zhou, Qingbo & Tang, Huajun, 2017. "Assessing the harvested area gap in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 212-220.
    21. Wenting JIANG & Xiaohu LIU & Wen QI & Xiaonan XU & Yucui ZHU, 2017. "Using QUEFTS model for estimating nutrient requirements of maize in the Northeast China," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(11), pages 498-504.
    22. Cheng, Qingyue & Li, Liangyu & Liao, Qin & Fu, Hao & Nie, Jiangxia & Luo, Yongheng & Wang, Zhonglin & Yin, Huilai & Shu, Chuanhai & Chen, Zongkui & Sun, Yongjian & Ma, Jun & Li, Na & Yang, Zhiyuan, 2023. "Is scale production more advantageous than smallholders for Chinese rice production?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27424-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.