IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i8p4437-d788665.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Future Rice Yields in Global Major Rice-Producing Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Weixing Zhao

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Jieming Chou

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 510275, China)

  • Jiangnan Li

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Yuan Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Yuanmeng Li

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Yidan Hao

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

Under the dual impacts of climate change and COVID-19, there are great risks to the world’s food security. Rice is one of the three major food crops of the world. Assessing the impact of climate change on future rice production is very important for ensuring global food security. This article divides the world’s main rice-producing regions into four regions and uses a multivariate nonlinear model based on historical economic and climatic data to explore the impacts of historical extreme climatic events and economic factors on rice yield. Based on these historical models, future climatic data, and economic data under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), the yields of four major rice-producing regions of the world under different climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) are predicted. The research results reveal that under different climate change scenarios, extreme high-temperature events (Tx90p) and extreme precipitation events (Rx5day, R99pTOT) in the four major rice-producing regions have an upward trend in the future. Extreme low-temperature events (Tn10p) have a downward trend. In the rice-producing regions of Southeast Asia and South America, extreme precipitation events will increase significantly in the future. The prediction results of this model indicate that the rice output of these four major rice-producing regions will show an upward trend in the future. Although extreme precipitation events will have a negative impact on rice production, future increases in rice planting areas, economic development, and population growth will all contribute to an increase in rice production. The increase in food demand caused by population growth also brings uncertainty to global food security. This research is helpful for further understanding climate change trends and risks to global rice-production areas in the future and provides an important reference for global rice-production planning and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Weixing Zhao & Jieming Chou & Jiangnan Li & Yuan Xu & Yuanmeng Li & Yidan Hao, 2022. "Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Future Rice Yields in Global Major Rice-Producing Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:8:p:4437-:d:788665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/8/4437/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/8/4437/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    2. Daoping Wang & Katie Jenkins & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Tianyang Lei & Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Boris Orlowsky & Sonia Seneviratne, 2012. "Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 669-696, February.
    4. Shen Yuan & Bruce A. Linquist & Lloyd T. Wilson & Kenneth G. Cassman & Alexander M. Stuart & Valerien Pede & Berta Miro & Kazuki Saito & Nurwulan Agustiani & Vina Eka Aristya & Leonardus Y. Krisnadi &, 2021. "Sustainable intensification for a larger global rice bowl," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Daisuke Murakami & Yoshiki Yamagata, 2019. "Estimation of Gridded Population and GDP Scenarios with Spatially Explicit Statistical Downscaling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kwon Joong Son, 2025. "Discrete Element Method Analysis of Soil Penetration Depth Affected by Spreading Speed in Drone-Seeded Rice," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    2. El-Saied E. Metwaly & Hatim M. Al-Yasi & Esmat F. Ali & Hamada A. Farouk & Saad Farouk, 2022. "Deteriorating Harmful Effects of Drought in Cucumber by Spraying Glycinebetaine," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. repec:ags:aaea22:335489 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2024. "Historical Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Rice and Maize Yields in Southeast Asia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Liu, Zhipeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Zhu, Chengli & Katul, Gabriel G. & Ma, Junyong & Guo, Weihua, 2021. "Micro-climatic and crop responses to micro-sprinkler irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    6. Teresa Armada Brás & Jonas Jägermeyr & Júlia Seixas, 2019. "Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1373-1393, December.
    7. Sungdon Kim & Youngmi Lee & Haejune Oh, 2025. "Estimation of Gridded Population with Spatial Downscaling in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-26, February.
    8. Yusifzada, Tural, 2022. "Response of Inflation to the Climate Stress: Evidence from Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 116522, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    9. Dániel Fróna & János Szenderák & Mónika Harangi-Rákos, 2019. "The Challenge of Feeding the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Balázs Varga & Zsuzsanna Farkas & Emese Varga-László & Gyula Vida & Ottó Veisz, 2022. "Elevated Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Influences the Rooting Habits of Winter-Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) Varieties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Qimeng Pan & Lysa Porth & Hong Li, 2022. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Actuaries Climate Index for Estimating the Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yield and Insurance Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, June.
    12. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    14. Kelly R. Wilson & Robert L. Myers & Mary K. Hendrickson & Emily A. Heaton, 2022. "Different Stakeholders’ Conceptualizations and Perspectives of Regenerative Agriculture Reveals More Consensus Than Discord," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    15. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    16. Randell, Heather & Jiang, Chengsheng & Liang, Xin-Zhong & Murtugudde, Raghu & Sapkota, Amir, 2021. "Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Xianglin Huang & Tingbin Zhang & Guihua Yi & Dong He & Xiaobing Zhou & Jingji Li & Xiaojuan Bie & Jiaqing Miao, 2019. "Dynamic Changes of NDVI in the Growing Season of the Tibetan Plateau During the Past 17 Years and Its Response to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-21, September.
    18. Adeline Bichet & Arona Diedhiou & Benoit Hingray & Guillaume Evin & N’Datchoh Evelyne Touré & Klutse Nana Ama Browne & Kouakou Kouadio, 2020. "Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 583-601, September.
    19. Sahrish Saeed & Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum & Sofia Anwar & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen, 2023. "Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Feedback Hypothesis: A Comparison of Lower-Middle, Upper-Middle, and High-Income Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-25, February.
    20. Marmai, Nadin & Franco Villoria, Maria & Guerzoni, Marco, 2016. "How the Black Swan damages the harvest: statistical modelling of extreme events in weather and crop production in Africa, Asia, and Latin America," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 201605, University of Turin.
    21. Ding, Yugang & Xu, Jiangmin, 2023. "Global vulnerability of agricultural commodities to climate risk: Evidence from satellite data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 669-687.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:8:p:4437-:d:788665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.