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Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Debojyoti Chakraborty

    (Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW))

  • Albert Ciceu

    (Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW))

  • Dalibor Ballian

    (University of Sarajevo
    Slovenian Forestry Institute (SFI)
    Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina)

  • Marta Benito Garzón

    (University of Bordeaux)

  • Andreas Bolte

    (Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems)

  • Gregor Bozic

    (Slovenian Forestry Institute (SFI))

  • Rafael Buchacher

    (Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW))

  • Jaroslav Čepl

    (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague)

  • Eva Cremer

    (Bavarian Office for Forest Genetics (AWG))

  • Alexis Ducousso

    (University of Bordeaux)

  • Julian Gaviria

    (Bavarian Office for Forest Genetics (AWG)
    Bavarian Academy for Nature Conservation and Landscape Management (ANL))

  • Jan Peter George

    (Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW)
    Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE))

  • André Hardtke

    (Northwest German Forest Research Institute (NW-FVA))

  • Mladen Ivankovic

    (Croatian Forest Research Institute)

  • Marcin Klisz

    (Forest Research Institute (IBL))

  • Jan Kowalczyk

    (Forest Research Institute (IBL))

  • Antoine Kremer

    (University of Bordeaux)

  • Milan Lstibůrek

    (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague)

  • Roman Longauer

    (National Forest Centre
    Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology)

  • Georgeta Mihai

    (‘Marin Dracea’ National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry)

  • László Nagy

    (University of Sopron)

  • Krasimira Petkova

    (University of Forestry)

  • Emil Popov

    (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Randolf Schirmer

    (Bavarian Office for Forest Genetics (AWG))

  • Tore Skrøppa

    (Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO))

  • Thomas Mørtvedt Solvin

    (Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO))

  • Arne Steffenrem

    (Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO))

  • Jan Stejskal

    (Czech University of Life Sciences Prague)

  • Srdjan Stojnic

    (University of Novi Sad)

  • Katharina Volmer

    (Northwest German Forest Research Institute (NW-FVA))

  • Silvio Schueler

    (Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW))

Abstract

Climate change threatens the role of European forests as a long-term carbon sink. Assisted migration aims to increase the resilience of forest tree populations to climate change, using species-specific climatic limits and local adaptations through transferring seed provenances. We modelled assisted migration scenarios for seven main European tree species and analysed the effects of species and seed provenance selection, accounting for environmental and genetic variations, on the annual above-ground carbon sink of regrowing juvenile forests. To increase forest resilience, coniferous trees need to be replaced by deciduous species over large parts of their distribution. If local seed provenances are used, this would result in a decrease of the current carbon sink (40 TgC yr−1) by 34–41% by 2061–2080. However, if seed provenances adapted to future climates are used, current sinks could be maintained or even increased to 48–60 TgC yr−1.

Suggested Citation

  • Debojyoti Chakraborty & Albert Ciceu & Dalibor Ballian & Marta Benito Garzón & Andreas Bolte & Gregor Bozic & Rafael Buchacher & Jaroslav Čepl & Eva Cremer & Alexis Ducousso & Julian Gaviria & Jan Pet, 2024. "Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(8), pages 845-852, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02080-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02080-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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