Measuring the SCCs of different Chinese regions under future scenarios

The assessment of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is an important basis for formulating regional differentiated climate policies. This paper attempts to assess future SCC for eight Chinese regions by using the regional integrated model of climate and the economy (the RICE model), based on four scenarios, namely baseline (BS), carbon emissions trading (CET), carbon quotas (CQ), and carbon tax (CT) for the period 2005–2050. The results show that under the BS, CET, and CT scenarios, the SCC of China's eight regions increases by $22.26/t C, $20.58/t C, and $19.14/t C, respectively, from 2005 to 2050. The CT scenario performed best in terms of impact on CEs and SCC, but in order to do so they will have to bear certain economic losses. There are differences between the SCC of the eight Chinese regions under different scenarios. Under the BS, CET, and CT scenarios, the areas where SCC is highest are distributed in the Central, North Coast, and Southwest regions, and in the CQ scenario, the high-SCC areas are concentrated in the Southwest, North Coast, and Northeast regions. The low-SCC areas are distributed in the Beijing–Tianjin and South Coast regions under all four scenarios. The central and western regions will become the major energy consuming regions after 2025, so they will face a greater pressure than other regions to reduce emissions.