IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bcb/wpaper/593.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social Discounting and the Tragedy of the Horizon: from the Stern-Nordhaus debate to target-consistent prices

Author

Listed:
  • Ramiro de Ávila Peres

Abstract

The "social cost of carbon" (SCC) is a value used to price or tax emissions, so internalizing their externalities; economists disagree about it, and one of the sources of dispute is the "pure time preference rate" – which reflects how much one favors present over future well-being. Those advocating a descriptive approach, associated with William Nordhaus, propose to aggregate the time preferences empirically observed, often resulting in a low SCC. On the other hand, the normative approach, associated with Nicholas Stern, advocates temporal impartiality; but it implies transferring more resources to the next generations – at the limit, assuming exponential population growth, it can be associated with a "longtermist" stance. We discuss how a different approach could help leaving this dispute behind – by estimating carbon prices that are consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement – thus emphasizing the role of political and international agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramiro de Ávila Peres, 2024. "Social Discounting and the Tragedy of the Horizon: from the Stern-Nordhaus debate to target-consistent prices," Working Papers Series 593, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:593
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/WP593.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian W. R. Martin & Robert S. Pindyck, 2015. "Averting Catastrophes: The Strange Economics of Scylla and Charybdis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 2947-2985, October.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    3. Greaves, Hilary, 2017. "Discounting For Public Policy: A Survey," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 391-439, November.
    4. Revesz, Richard L., 1999. "Environmental Regulation, Cost-Benefit Analysis, and the Discounting of Human Lives," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt57q8284f, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
    5. Bureau, Dominique & Quinet, Alain & Schubert, Katheline, 2021. "Benefit-Cost Analysis for Climate Action," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 494-517, October.
    6. Andrea Rampa, 2020. "Climate change, catastrophes and Dismal Theorem: a critical review [Klimawandel, Katastrophen und das „Dismal Theorem“: eine kritische Überprüfung]," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 40(2), pages 113-136, October.
    7. Gollier, Christian & Weitzman, Martin L., 2010. "How should the distant future be discounted when discount rates are uncertain?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 350-353, June.
    8. Boyce, James K., 2018. "Carbon Pricing: Effectiveness and Equity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 52-61.
    9. William Nordhaus, 2019. "Climate Change: The Ultimate Challenge for Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 1991-2014, June.
    10. Kelleher, J. Paul, 2017. "Pure Time Preference In Intertemporal Welfare Economics," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 441-473, November.
    11. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 873-890, November.
    12. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
    13. Partha Dasgupta & Eric Maskin, 2005. "Uncertainty and Hyperbolic Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1290-1299, September.
    14. Stephen Smith & Nils Axel Braathen, 2015. "Monetary Carbon Values in Policy Appraisal: An Overview of Current Practice and Key Issues," OECD Environment Working Papers 92, OECD Publishing.
    15. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 895-900, October.
    16. R. Daniel Bressler, 2021. "The mortality cost of carbon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Méjean, Aurélie & Pottier, Antonin & Zuber, Stéphane & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2023. "Opposite ethical views converge under the threat of catastrophic climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    4. Peter Harrison Howard & Derek Sylvan, 2020. "Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 213-232, September.
    5. David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "Testing the Dismal Theorem," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 885-920.
    6. Moritz A. Drupp & Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt & Robert Christian Schmidt, 2022. "Pricing Carbon," CESifo Working Paper Series 9608, CESifo.
    7. Cole, Wesley & Antonysamy, Adithya & Brown, Patrick & Sergi, Brian & Mai, Trieu & Denholm, Paul, 2023. "How much might it cost to decarbonize the power sector? It depends on the metric," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    8. Robert C. Schmidt & Moritz Drupp & Frikk Nesje & Hendrik Hoegen, 2022. "Testing the free-rider hypothesis in climate policy," Papers 2211.06209, arXiv.org.
    9. Michalis Skourtos & Dimitris Damigos & Areti Kontogianni & Christos Tourkolias & Alistair Hunt, 2019. "Embedding Preference Uncertainty for Environmental Amenities in Climate Change Economic Assessments: A “Random” Step Forward," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
    10. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    11. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    13. Fremstad, Anders & Paul, Mark, 2022. "Neoliberalism and climate change: How the free-market myth has prevented climate action," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Maya Eden, 2023. "The Cross‐Sectional Implications of the Social Discount Rate," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2065-2088, November.
    15. Fleurbaey, Marc & Zuber, Stéphane, 2015. "Discounting, risk and inequality: A general approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 34-49.
    16. Aline Chiabai & Ibon Galarraga & Anil Markandya & Unai Pascual, 2013. "The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(4), pages 535-550, December.
    17. Lee H. Endress & James A. Roumasset & Christopher A. Wada, 2020. "Do Natural Disasters Make Sustainable Growth Impossible?," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 319-345, July.
    18. Stefano Carattini & Garth Heutel & Givi Melkadze, 2023. "Climate Policy, Financial Frictions, and Transition Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 778-794, December.
    19. Ströbel, Johannes & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2021. "What do you think about climate finance?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.