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Simulations at Czech poultry market

Author

Listed:
  • Lenka Rumánková

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • T. Maier

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • J. Mach

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • L. Čechura

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • Z. Křístková

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • M. Malý

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • Z. Malá

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

  • P. Hálová

    (Katedra ekonomiky, Provozně ekonomická fakulta, Česká zemědělská univerzita, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha 6 - Suchdol, Česká republika)

Abstract

This paper defines the possible scenarios of the development of the poultry market in the Czech Republic, in view of the trends in production, consumption and foreign trade. The individual scenarios are based upon the forecasts of selected factors that have a substantial impact on the poultry market and whose changes can be expected in the subsequent years with great likelihood. The article sets out and addresses various scenarios for the period of 2012-2014. The scenarios are based upon the partial equilibrium model of the poultry market, which has been derived on the basis of time series and panel data within the years 1995-2009. The conducted analysis clearly shows that changes in the prices of agricultural producers will have an effect on changes in the production of poultry meat, an increase in VAT through consumer prices will impact the rate of domestic consumption, as well as changes in disposable income. Similarly, a change in the exchange rate will have an effect on the amount of poultry imported into the Czech Republic.

Suggested Citation

  • Lenka Rumánková & T. Maier & J. Mach & L. Čechura & Z. Křístková & M. Malý & Z. Malá & P. Hálová, 2012. "Simulations at Czech poultry market," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 327-334.
    • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2012060040327
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun201260040327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holt, Matthew T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1998. "Endogenous risk in rational-expectations commodity models: A multivariate generalized ARCH-M approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 99-129, June.
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    3. Matthew T. Holt & Andrew M. McKenzie, 2003. "Quasi-rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 407-426.
    4. Huang, Biing-Wen & Chen, Meng-Gu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Modelling risk in agricultural finance: Application to the poultry industry in Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1472-1487.
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