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Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A Markov Switching Regression Approach

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  • Ann-Ni Soh
  • Chin-Hong Puah
  • Meng-Chang Jong

Abstract

A wave of studies has always surrounded the nexus of tourism development and economic growth in a nation. An assessment is provided in this study to examine the Malaysian tourism market dynamics. A series of macroeconomic variables has been utilised to model tourism demand and examine causal linkages among tourism and economic growth. Spanning from 2000 till 2018 on a monthly basis, the Markov regime switching regression provides an overview of tourism market performance and potential influences during recession and expansion periods of the Malaysian tourism cycle. Notably, the results present a reference chronology of the crises happening over the past two decades, the Granger causality of the variables, and different behavioural changes of the variables as well for both recession and expansion periods. Significant relationships have been revealed in this study that suggest that overall international tourism can drive economic growth and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & Meng-Chang Jong, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A Markov Switching Regression Approach," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 95-107, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:bmsmti:v:13:y:2022:i:2:p:95-107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between tourism, remittances and growth in Kenya," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1573-1588, May.
    2. SOH Ann-Ni & PUAH Chin-Hong & ARIP M. Affendy, 2020. "Tourism Forecasting And Tackling Fluctuating Patterns: A Composite Leading Indicator Approach," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 192-204, August.
    3. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & Granger, Clive W. J., 2010. "Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587155.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip, 2019. "Forecasting Tourism Demand with Composite Indicator Approach for Fiji," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(4), pages 12-22, December.
    6. Meng-Chang Jong & Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah, 2022. "Tourism Sustainability: Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in South Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 412-417, November.
    7. José Perles & Ana Ramón & Antonio Rubia, 2015. "Economic crises and tourism competitiveness: A Markov swtiching regression approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1906-1915.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    9. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2014. "The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 458-464.
    10. James E. Payne & Andrea Mervar, 2010. "Research Note: The Tourism–Growth Nexus in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(4), pages 1089-1094, December.
    11. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    12. Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & M. Affendy Arip & Tai-Hock Kuek, 2019. "Oil Price and Fijian Tourism Cycle: A Markov Regime-switching Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 188-192.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meng-Chang Jong & Chin-Hong Puah & Mohammad Affendy Arip, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism Demand in China," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 482-488, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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