IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-15-00154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic crises and tourism competitiveness: A Markov swtiching regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • José Perles

    (Department of Applied Economic Analyisis. University of Alicante)

  • Ana Ramón

    (Department of Applied Economic Analyisis. University of Alicante)

  • Antonio Rubia

    (Department of Financial Economics and Accounting)

Abstract

Authors discuss the effects that economic crises generate on the global market shares of tourism destinations, through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the previous literature using a non-linear approach. Specifically a Markov Switching Regression approach is used to estimate the effect of two basic transmission mechanisms: reductions of internal and external tourism demands and falling investment.

Suggested Citation

  • José Perles & Ana Ramón & Antonio Rubia, 2015. "Economic crises and tourism competitiveness: A Markov swtiching regression approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1906-1915.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I3-P194.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ann-Ni Soh & Chin-Hong Puah & Meng-Chang Jong, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Tourism Demand in Malaysia: A Markov Switching Regression Approach," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 95-107, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    2. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    3. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.
    4. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    5. Kerekes, Monika, 2009. "Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth," Discussion Papers 2009/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, November.
    7. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Peter McAdam, 2007. "USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 135-156.
    9. Cavicchioli, Maddalena, 2024. "A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    10. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
    11. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    12. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Yang, Qing-Qing & Ching, Wai-Ki & Gu, Jia-Wen & Siu, Tak-Kuen, 2018. "Market-making strategy with asymmetric information and regime-switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 408-433.
    14. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," Borradores de Economia 2274, Banco de la Republica.
    15. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    16. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    17. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    18. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
    19. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    20. Sylvia Frühwirth‐Schnatter & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2006. "How do changes in monetary policy affect bank lending? An analysis of Austrian bank data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 275-305, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic crisis; Tourism destination competitiveness; Permanent shocks; Markov Switching Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.