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Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises

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  • Michael D. McKenzie

Abstract

The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. McKenzie, 2007. "Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 46-73, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:4:p:46-73
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    Cited by:

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    2. William T. Lin & Shih-Chuan Tsai & David S. Sun, 2012. "Search Costs and Investor Trading Activity: Evidence from Limit Order Books," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 4-30, May.
    3. Muhammad Arif & Muddasar Hasan & Abu Bakr & Muhammad Ziaullah & Muhammad Ali Tarer, 2018. "Profitability Of The Moving Averages Technical Trading Rules In An Emerging Stock Market-A Study Of Individual Stocks Listed On Pakistan Stock Exchange," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(2), pages 67-76.
    4. Rudiawarni, Felizia Arni & Sulistiawan, Dedhy & Sergi, Bruno S., 2024. "The role of the net purchase of stocks by foreign investors in boosting stock returns: Evidence from the Indonesian stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Ip, Hugo Tak-Sang, 2009. "Do momentum-based strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 479-493, September.
    6. Yan-Ting Lin & Shang-Chi Gong & Sou-Shan Wu & Tsung-Pei Lee, 2012. "E/P Mean Reversion-Based Strategies for Investment Practice: Evidence from the Taiwan Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 117-131, January.
    7. Sermpinis, Georgios & Hassanniakalager, Arman & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Psaradellis, Ioannis, 2021. "Technical analysis profitability and Persistence: A discrete false discovery approach on MSCI indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Ma, Yao & Yang, Baochen & Su, Yunpeng, 2020. "Technical trading index, return predictability and idiosyncratic volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 879-900.
    9. Muhammad Arif & Muddasar Hasan & Abu Bakr & Muhammad Ziaullah & Muhammad Ali Tarer, 2018. "Profitability Of The Moving Averages Technical Trading Rules In An Emerging Stock Market-A Study Of Individual Stocks Listed On Pakistan Stock Exchange," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(2), pages 14-16.
    10. Mohammed Bouasabah & Oshamah Ibrahim Khalaf, 2023. "A Technical Indicator for a Short-term Trading Decision in the NASDAQ Market," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 27(3), pages 1-13, September.
    11. Yen-Sen Ni & Jen-Tsai Lee & Yi-Ching Liao, 2013. "Do variable length moving average trading rules matter during a financial crisis period?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 135-141, February.
    12. Metghalchi, Massoud & Chen, Chien-Ping & Hayes, Linda A., 2015. "History of share prices and market efficiency of the Madrid general stock index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 178-184.
    13. Metghalchi Massoud & Garza-Gomez Xavier, 2011. "Trading Rules for the Abu Dhabi Stock Index," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, May.
    14. Lin, William & Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2010. "Does trading remove or bring frictions?," MPRA Paper 37285, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2011.
    15. Tsung-Hsun Lu & Yung-Ming Shiu, 2012. "Tests for Two-Day Candlestick Patterns in the Emerging Equity Market of Taiwan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 41-57, January.
    16. Ansari Saleh Ahmar & Abdul Rahman & Andi Nurani Mangkawani Arifin & Alfatih Abqary Ahmar, 2017. "Predicting movement of stock of “Y” using Sutte Indicator," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1347123-134, January.
    17. Ansari Saleh Ahmar, 2017. "Sutte Indicator: A Technical Indicator in Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 223-226.

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