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On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market

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  • Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando
  • Gonzalez-Martel, Christian
  • Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the profitability of a simple technical trading rule based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Our results, based on applying this investment strategy to the General Index of the Madrid Stock Market, suggest that, in absence of trading costs, the technical trading rule is always superior to a buy-and-hold strategy for both "bear" market and "stable" market episodes. On the other hand, we find that the buy-and-hold strategy generates higher returns than the trading rule based on ANN only for a "bull" market subperiod.
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Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Gonzalez-Martel, Christian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2000. "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 89-94, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:69:y:2000:i:1:p:89-94
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January.
    2. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    3. Blake LeBaron, "undated". "Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange," Working papers _007, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
    4. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    5. Gencay Ramazan & Stengos Thanasis, 1997. "Technical Trading Rules and the Size of the Risk Premium in Security Returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, "undated". "Further evidence on technical analysis and profitability of foreign exchange intervention," Working Papers 99-01, FEDEA.
    7. Gencay, Ramazan, 1998. "Optimization of technical trading strategies and the profitability in security markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-254, May.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    9. LeBaron, B., 1992. "Do Moving Average Trading Rule Results Imply Nonlinearites in Foreign Exchange Markets?," Working papers 9222, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    10. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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