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Do momentum-based strategies work in emerging currency markets?

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  • Chong, Terence Tai-Leung
  • Ip, Hugo Tak-Sang

Abstract

Existing studies on the profitability of trading rules in the currency market focus mainly on the currencies of developed countries. The profitability of technical trading rules on the currencies of emerging economies is surprisingly understudied. This paper evaluates the profitability of technical trading rules in emerging currency markets. Similar to Okunev and White [Okunev, J. and White, D., (2003) "Do Momentum-based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?" Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38, 425-447.], 354 long/short moving average rules for six currencies are investigated. It is found that investing in emerging currencies can generate a considerable annual return of over 20%, even after a 5% annual transaction cost is imposed. The trading-rule profits are relatively stable across the 20Â year sample period. Furthermore, the impact of financial crises on the trading-rule returns is also examined. It is found that the profitability of the trading rules is improved after the crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Ip, Hugo Tak-Sang, 2009. "Do momentum-based strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 479-493, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:17:y:2009:i:4:p:479-493
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    2. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Wing-Kam Ng & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2014. "Revisiting the Performance of MACD and RSI Oscillators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, February.
    3. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Tang, Alan Tsz Chung & Chan, Kwun Ho, 2016. "An Empirical Comparison of Fast and Slow Stochastics," MPRA Paper 80559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012. "Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.
    5. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & He, Qing & Ip, Hugo Tak Sang & Siu, Jonathan T., 2017. "Profitability of CAPM Momentum Strategies in the US Stock Market," MPRA Paper 80563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
    7. Kim man Lui & Terence T. L. Chong, 2013. "Do Technical Analysts Outperform Novice Traders: Experimental Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 3080-3087.
    8. Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Can technical trading beat the foreign exchange market in times of crisis?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Yafeng Qin & Min Bai, 2014. "Foreign Ownership Restriction and Momentum – Evidence from Emerging Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 237-261, June.
    10. William Wai Him Tsang & Terence Tai Leung Chong, 2009. "Profitability of the On-Balance Volume Indicator," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2424-2431.
    11. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    12. Raza, Ahmad & Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2014. "Is there momentum or reversal in weekly currency returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-60.
    13. Ying Hao & Hsiang-Hui Chu & Kuan-Cheng Ko & Lin Lin, 2016. "Momentum Strategies and Investor Sentiment in the REIT Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 41-71, March.
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    15. Truong, Cameron, 2010. "Post earnings announcement drift and the roles of drift-enhanced factors in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-157, April.

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