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Toward the European Monetary Union - A Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility?

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  • Martin Cincibuch, David Vávra

Abstract

We address the question of the exchange rate regime for the Czech Republic before it enters the EU and the EMU. We classify the macroeconomic impacts of a single currency regime according to the traditional OCA theory. Using quantitative measures, we find the degree of macroeconomic convergence between the Czech and German (EU) economies high enough not to form a major obstacle to a fixed currency regime. In addition, we look at the transitional specificities of the Czech economy. We analyze the real appreciation of the Czech currency and its relationship to competitiveness and find that the development of cost factors exercises downward pressures on the exchange rate. Conversely, a fixed regime may alleviate the problem of foreign capital inflows and the ensuing nominal appreciation - another idiosyncrasy of the Czech economy. However, once labor market rigidities are removed, a fixed regime may become the source of a sustainable competitive advantage, growth, and convergence.

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  • Martin Cincibuch, David Vávra, 2001. "Toward the European Monetary Union - A Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 23-63, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:39:y:2001:i:6:p:23-63
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Carlos Vieira & Isabel Vieira, 2012. "Assessing The Endogeneity Of Oca Conditions In Emu," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80, pages 77-91, September.
    3. Skorepa, Michal & Komarek, Lubos, 2015. "Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 654-674.
    4. Michal SKOREPA, 2013. "Troubles in the Euro Area Periphery: The View through the Lens of a Simple Convergence-Sensitive Optimum Currency Area Index," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(2), pages 129-151, May.
    5. Hanns-D. Jacobsen & Andrej Stuchlik, 2002. "Die Osterweiterung der Eurozone: Einige grundlegende Ueberlegungen zu Moeglichkeiten und Risiken," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp03, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Feb 2002.
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Eduard Hagara, 2004. "Podobnosť ponukových a dopytových šokov v Európskej Únii a v pristupujúcich krajinách (implikácie pre Českú republiku a Slovensko) [Similarity of supply and demand shocks in the European Union and ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(2), pages 153-164.

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