IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpol/v2004y2004i2id455.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Podobnosť ponukových a dopytových šokov v Európskej Únii a v pristupujúcich krajinách (implikácie pre Českú republiku a Slovensko)
[Similarity of supply and demand shocks in the European Union and acceding countries (implications for the Czech republic and Slovakia)]

Author

Listed:
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Eduard Hagara

Abstract

In this contribution, we compare the correlation of supply and demand shocks for the countries of the euro zone and the acceding countries in Central Europe. Demand and supply shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation in individual countries. We find that Poland and Hungary face already a comparably high similarity with the countries of the current euro zone. However, the remaining countries show still significant differences in business cycles as compared to the euro zone. This is likely to indicate that the loss of monetary sovereignty may be costly. In turn, the integration is expected to align the business cycles of these countries in the medium run. We document a similar development for the countries of the European Union in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Eduard Hagara, 2004. "Podobnosť ponukových a dopytových šokov v Európskej Únii a v pristupujúcich krajinách (implikácie pre Českú republiku a Slovensko) [Similarity of supply and demand shocks in the European Union and ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(2), pages 153-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:2:id:455
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.455.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.455.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.polek.455?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    2. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
    3. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    5. Martin Cincibuch, David Vávra, 2001. "Toward the European Monetary Union - A Need for Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 23-63, November.
    6. Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "On the Way of EMU Enlargement towards CEECs: What is the Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2015. "Mundell, the Euro, and the World Dollar Standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 450-459.
    8. Kenen, Peter B., 2000. "Currency areas, policy domains, and the institutionalization of fixed exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Frenkel, Michael & Nickel, Christiane & Schmidt, Günter, 1999. "Some shocking aspects of EMU enlargement," Research Notes 99-4, Deutsche Bank Research.
    10. Lubos Komarek & Zdenek Cech & Roman Horvath, 2003. "Optimum Currency Area Indices - How Close is the Czech Republic to the Eurozone?," Working Papers 2003/10, Czech National Bank.
    11. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the CEECs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 313-334, September.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    9. Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2006. "How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 523-544, September.
    10. Nabil Ben Arfa, 2009. "Analysis of Shocks Affecting Europe: EMU and some Central and Eastern Acceding Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(1), pages 21-38, March.
    11. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-061 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán, 2005. "Characterizing macroeconomic shocks in the CEECs," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 227-234, December.
    13. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    14. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    15. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Hoang Sang Nguyen & Fabien Rondeau, 2019. "The transmission of business cycles: Lessons from the 2004 enlargement of the EU and the adoption of the euro," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 729-743, July.
    19. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs: What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    20. Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    21. Stefaan Ide & Philippe Moës, 2004. "Asymetric growth and inflation developments in the acceding countries: a new assessment," Working Paper Research 63, National Bank of Belgium.
    22. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    23. repec:bil:bilpap:0501 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2005. "Real and nominal stochastic convergence: Are the new EU members ready to join the Euro zone?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 387-400, June.
    25. Aslanidis, Nektarios, 2007. "Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach," Working Papers 2072/5318, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency area; EU enlargement; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:2:id:455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.