IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/econwp/qt5dt9501s.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Bayoumi, Tamim

Abstract

In this paper we develop a procedure for applying the core implications of the theory of optimum currency areas to cross-country data. We demonstrate that these implications find strong empirical support. The relationship between the characteristics of countries to which OCA theory points and the observed behavior of exchange rates seems sufficiently stable and robust to support simple forecasting. Extrapolating the independent variables, we therefore use our exchange rate equations to predict which countries will be best able to support stable exchange rates in the future -- equivalently, which are likely to be best prepared to be among the founding members of Europe's monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5dt9501s, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt5dt9501s
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/5dt9501s.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    3. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, October.
    4. Paul Grauwe, 1996. "The economics of convergence: Towards monetary union in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(1), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 537-554, December.
    6. Smaghi, L.B. & Area, C., 1993. "Rating the EC as an Optimal Currency Area," Papers 187, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    7. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Monetary union and convergence economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1091-1101, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2008. "A Model of an Optimum Currency Area," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-31.
    2. Paolo Pasimeni, 2014. "An Optimum Currency Crisis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 11(2), pages 173-204, December.
    3. Lee, Grace H.Y., 2011. "Gold dinar for the Islamic countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1573-1586, July.
    4. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 2000. "Les zones monétaires optimales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 577-612, décembre.
    5. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    7. George Demopoulos & Nicholas Yannacopoulos, 1999. "Conditions for Optimality of a Currency Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 289-303, July.
    8. Horvath, Julius, 2003. "Optimum currency area theory: A selective review," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Florence Huart & Médédé Tchakpalla, 2019. "Labor Market Conditions and Geographic Mobility in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 263-284, June.
    10. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    11. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 1999. "EMU in Reality: The Effect of a Common Monetary Policy on Economies with Different Transmission Mechanisms," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 337-358, December.
    12. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2019. "Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 232-249.
    13. Filippo Balestrieri & Mr. Suman S Basu, 2018. "An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions," IMF Working Papers 2018/205, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    15. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise, 2013. "Optimality of a monetary union: New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 463-482.
    16. Michael C. Burda, 2001. "European Labour Markets and the Euro: How Much Flexibility Do We Really Need?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 7, pages 252-282, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie, 2020. "Heterogeneity within the euro area: New insights into an old story," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 428-444.
    18. Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    19. Nchor, Dennis, 2020. "Labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks in Europe : Evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54, pages 1-16.
    20. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt5dt9501s. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Schiff (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibbrkus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.