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A reálárfolyam-ingadozások főbb meghatározói Magyarországon
[The main determinants of real exchange-rate fluctuations in Hungary]

Author

Listed:
  • Jakab M., Zoltán
  • Kovács, Mihály András

Abstract

Az elemzés a magyar reálárfolyam-ingadozások főbb mozgatórugóit kutatja. A külkereskedelem-képes termékek árindexen alapuló reálárfolyam-ingadozásaiban a külkereskedelem-képes szektorbeli árazási magatartást és az ár- és bérmerevségeket elemezzük, míg a relatív (nem külkereskedelem-képes/külkereskedelem-képes) termékárak viselkedésének vizsgálatakor a relatív termelékenységi különbségek szerepére adunk becslést. Annak érdekében, hogy külön tudjuk választani a gazdaságpolitika (árfolyam-politika) hatásait az árazási magatartás hatásaitól, a külkereskedelem-képes szektorban egy gazdaságpolitikai reakciófüggvényt határozunk meg. Az ökonometriai elemzéshez egy kétszektoros, kis nyitott gazdaságra vonatkoztatott reálárfolyammodellt használunk fel. Eredményeink szerint az ár- és bérmerevségek nem játszottak számottevő szerepet a külkereskedelem-képes termékek reálárfolyamalakulásában, a külkereskedelem-képes szektor kínálati sokkjai ugyanakkor meghatározónak bizonyultak. A relatív árak alakulását pedig a nem külkereskedelem-képes szektor kínálati sokkjai mozgatták elsősorban, ami a BalassaSamuelson-effektus fontosságát támasztja alá.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakab M., Zoltán & Kovács, Mihály András, 2000. "A reálárfolyam-ingadozások főbb meghatározói Magyarországon [The main determinants of real exchange-rate fluctuations in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 136-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:305
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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