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Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Bayoumi, Tamim

Abstract

In this paper we develop a procedure for applying the core implications of the theory of optimum currency areas to cross-country data. We demonstrate that these implications find strong empirical support. The relationship between the characteristics of countries to which OCA theory points and the observed behavior of exchange rates seems sufficiently stable and robust to support simple forecasting. Extrapolating the independent variables, we therefore use our exchange rate equations to predict which countries will be best able to support stable exchange rates in the future -- equivalently, which are likely to be best prepared to be among the founding members of Europe's monetary union.
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Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5th597st, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt5th597st
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. La stabilisation macroéconomique en Zone Euro (I)
      by simon.ganem@hotmail.fr (Simon Ganem) in BS Initiative on 2014-02-11 10:08:54

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chantal Dupasquier & Jocelyn Jacob, 1997. "European economic and monetary union: Background and implications," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 3-28.
    2. Solomon Abayomi Olakojo, 2018. "Foreign Trade and International Financial Flows: Implications for Economic Stability in the Selected ECOWAS Countries," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 63-103, Winter.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & De Santis, Roberta & Girardi, Alessandro, 2015. "Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 154-163.
    4. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hammermann, Felix & Schweickert, Rainer & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "European monetary integration after EU enlargement," Kiel Discussion Papers 413, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Schweickert, Rainer, 2001. "Assessing the advantages of EMU-enlargement for the EU and the accession countries: a comparative indicator approach," Kiel Working Papers 1080, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2018. "To Be or not to Be a Euro Country? The Behavioural Political Economics of Currency Unions," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1883, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Handler, Heinz, 2013. "The eurozone: piecemeal approach to an optimum currency area," MPRA Paper 67183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can It Become One? Regional, Global and Historical Perspectives on Asian Monetary Relations," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1td5x343, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.

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