IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v77y2010i2p399-422.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of Housing Price Jump Risks and Their Impact on the Valuation of Mortgage Insurance Contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Ming‐Chi Chen
  • Chia‐Chien Chang
  • Shih‐Kuei Lin
  • So‐De Shyu

Abstract

Housing price jump risk and the subprime crisis have drawn more attention to the precise estimation of mortgage insurance premiums. This study derives the pricing formula for mortgage insurance premiums by assuming that the housing price process follows the jump diffusion process, capturing important characteristics of abnormal shock events. This assumption is consistent with the empirical observation of the U.S. monthly national average new home returns from 1986 to 2008. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of price jump risk on mortgage insurance premiums from shock frequency of the abnormal events, abnormal mean and volatility of jump size, and normal volatility. Empirical results indicate that the abnormal volatility of jump size has the most significant impact on mortgage insurance premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming‐Chi Chen & Chia‐Chien Chang & Shih‐Kuei Lin & So‐De Shyu, 2010. "Estimation of Housing Price Jump Risks and Their Impact on the Valuation of Mortgage Insurance Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 399-422, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:77:y:2010:i:2:p:399-422
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01326.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01326.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01326.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce Mizrach, 2008. "Jump and Cojump Risk in Subprime Home Equity Derivatives," Departmental Working Papers 200802, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Ballotta, Laura, 2005. "A Lévy process-based framework for the fair valuation of participating life insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-196, October.
    3. Okmyung Bin & Jamie Brown Kruse & Craig E. Landry, 2008. "Flood Hazards, Insurance Rates, and Amenities: Evidence From the Coastal Housing Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 63-82, March.
    4. Patric H. Hendershott & Robert Van Order, 1987. "Pricing Mortgages: An Interpretation of the Models and Results," NBER Working Papers 2290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:375-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    8. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June.
    9. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    10. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    11. Lambrecht, Bart M & Perraudin, William R M & Satchell, Steven, 2003. "Mortgage Default and Possession under Recourse: A Competing Hazards Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 425-442, June.
    12. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    13. Gregory D Sutton, 2002. "Explaining changes in house prices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    14. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
    15. Glenn B. Canner & Monisha Mittal & Wayne Passmore, 1994. "Private mortgage insurance," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 883-899.
    16. John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 1990. "Efficiency in the Mortgage Market: The Borrower's Perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 237-252, September.
    17. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
    18. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
    19. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 335-338, July.
    20. Barry Dennis & Chionglong Kuo & Tyler Yang, 1997. "Rationales of Mortgage Insurance Premium Structures," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 359-378.
    21. Quigley, John M & Van Order, Robert, 1995. "Explicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 99-117, September.
    22. James Kau & Donald Keenan, 1999. "Catastrophic Default and Credit Risk for Lending Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 87-102, March.
    23. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
    24. Kuo, Chiong-long, 1996. "Housing Price Dynamics and the Valuation of Mortgage Default Options," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 18-40, March.
    25. Stefano Caselli & Stefano Gatti & Francesca Querci, 2008. "The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34, August.
    26. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
    27. Campbell, Tim S & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1983. "The Determinants of Default on Insured Conventional Residential Mortgage Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1569-1581, December.
    28. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Walter N. Torous, 1993. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 431-449, December.
    29. Ashok Bardhan & Raša Karapandža & Branko Urošević, 2006. "Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 9-20, February.
    30. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-299, August.
    31. Nityasuddhi, Dechavudh & Bohning, Dankmar, 2003. "Asymptotic properties of the EM algorithm estimate for normal mixture models with component specific variances," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 591-601, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ming Pu & Gang-Zhi Fan & Chunsheng Ban, 2016. "The Pricing of Mortgage Insurance Premiums Under Systematic and Idiosyncratic Shocks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 447-474, June.
    2. Jr-Wei Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Chuang-Chang Chang, 2021. "Modeling Housing Price Dynamics and their Impact on the Cost of no-Negative-Equity-Guarantees for Equity Releasing Products," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 249-279, August.
    3. Chang-Chih Chen & Chia-Chien Chang, 2019. "How Big are the Ambiguity-Based Premiums on Mortgage Insurances?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 133-157, January.
    4. Oh, Sebeom & Ku, Hyejin & Jun, Doobae, 2022. "A comparative analysis of housing prices in different cities using the Black–Scholes and Jump Diffusion models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    5. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2012. "On the valuation of reverse mortgages with regular tenure payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 430-441.
    6. Katja Hanewald & Michael Sherris, 2011. "House Price Risk Models for Banking and Insurance Applications," Working Papers 201118, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    7. Poitras, Geoffrey & Zanotti, Giovanna, 2016. "Mortgage contract design and systemic risk immunization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 320-331.
    8. Wu, Yang-Che & Huang, Yi-Ting & Lin, Shih-Kuei & Chuang, Ming-Che, 2017. "Fair valuation of mortgage insurance under stochastic default and interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 433-447.
    9. Gong, Xiaoye & Li, Ying & Wu, Yang-Che & Yang, Wan-Shiou, 2020. "Pricing various types of mortgage insurances with disposal and discount costs under a mean-reverting Lévy housing price process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    10. Chang, Chia-Chien, 2014. "Valuation Of Mortgage Insurance Contracts With Counterparty Default Risk: Reduced-Form Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 303-334, May.
    11. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2024. "Do economic uncertainty and persistence in housing prices matter on mortgage insurance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 33-44.
    12. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2017. "Valuing Vulnerable Mortgage Insurance Under Capital Forbearance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 558-578, May.
    13. Calvo-Garrido, María del Carmen & Vázquez, Carlos, 2015. "Effects of jump-diffusion models for the house price dynamics in the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages, insurance and coinsurance," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 271(C), pages 730-742.
    14. Chia-Chien Chang & Wei-Yi Huang & So-De Shyu, 2012. "Pricing Mortgage Insurance with Asymmetric Jump Risk and Default Risk: Evidence in the U.S. Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 846-868, November.
    15. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Kung, Ko-Lun & Liu, I-Chien, 2018. "Profitability and risk profile of reverse mortgages: A cross-system and cross-plan comparison," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 255-266.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chia-Chien Chang & Wei-Yi Huang & So-De Shyu, 2012. "Pricing Mortgage Insurance with Asymmetric Jump Risk and Default Risk: Evidence in the U.S. Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 846-868, November.
    2. Chang, Chia-Chien, 2014. "Valuation Of Mortgage Insurance Contracts With Counterparty Default Risk: Reduced-Form Approach," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 303-334, May.
    3. Ashok Bardhan & Raša Karapandža & Branko Urošević, 2006. "Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 9-20, February.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2012. "On the valuation of reverse mortgages with regular tenure payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 430-441.
    6. Michael S. Johannes & Nicholas G. Polson & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2009. "Optimal Filtering of Jump Diffusions: Extracting Latent States from Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2559-2599, July.
    7. Wu, Yang-Che & Huang, Yi-Ting & Lin, Shih-Kuei & Chuang, Ming-Che, 2017. "Fair valuation of mortgage insurance under stochastic default and interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 433-447.
    8. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2024. "Do economic uncertainty and persistence in housing prices matter on mortgage insurance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 33-44.
    9. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
    10. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2017. "Valuing Vulnerable Mortgage Insurance Under Capital Forbearance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 558-578, May.
    11. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2012. "The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 645-677, October.
    12. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    13. Jian Chen & Jin Xiang & Tyler T. Yang, 2018. "Re-Default Risk of Modified Mortgages," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40.
    14. Cheng, Ai-ru (Meg) & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ji, Chuanshu & Lee, Beom S., 2008. "A Gaussian approximation scheme for computation of option prices in stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 44-58, September.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Gibson, Michael & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 235-245, January.
    16. Federico M. Bandi & Roberto Reno, 2009. "Nonparametric Stochastic Volatility," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-035, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009. "A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
    18. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2017. "The impact of jumps and leverage in forecasting covolatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 638-650, October.
    19. Ran Deng & Shermineh Haghani, 2017. "FHA Loans in Foreclosure Proceedings: Distinguishing Sources of Interdependence in Competing Risks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 276-288, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:77:y:2010:i:2:p:399-422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.