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An Empirical Study Of The Fisher Effect And The Dynamic Relation Between Nominal Interest Rate And Inflation In Singapore

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  • KING FUEI LEE

    (Schroder Investment Management, 65 Chulia Street, #46-00 OCBC Centre, Singapore 049513, Singapore)

Abstract

The Fisher Effect postulated that real interest rate is constant, and that nominal interest rate and expected inflation move one-for-one together. This paper employs Johansen's method to investigate for the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in the Singapore economy over the period 1976 to 2006, and finds evidence of a positive relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate while rejecting the notion of a full Fisher Effect. The dynamic relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate is also examined from the error-correction models derived, and the analysis is extended to investigate the impulse response functions of inflation and nominal interest rates where we discover the presence of the Price Puzzle in the Singapore market.

Suggested Citation

  • King Fuei Lee, 2009. "An Empirical Study Of The Fisher Effect And The Dynamic Relation Between Nominal Interest Rate And Inflation In Singapore," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(01), pages 75-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:54:y:2009:i:01:n:s0217590809003173
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590809003173
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ghozali Maski & An'im Kafabih & Arif Hoetoro, 2018. "Testing Profit and Loss Sharing to Stabilise Level of Inflation: Evidence From Indonesia," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(2), pages 12-23, June.
    3. Yingying Xu & Zhixin Liu & Xing Zhang, 2017. "Heterogeneous Or Homogeneous Inflation Expectation Formation Models: A Case Study Of Chinese Households And Financial Participants," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(04), pages 859-874, September.
    4. Navoda Edirisinghe & Selliah Sivarajasingham & John Nigel, 2015. "An Empirical Study of the Fisher Effect and the Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rate in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 47-62, January.
    5. Bünyamin Fuat Yıldız & Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2022. "Analysing Monetary Policy Shocks by Sign and Parametric Restrictions: The Evidence from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Kartono, Agus & Febriyanti, Marina & Wahyudi, Setyanto Tri & Irmansyah,, 2020. "Predicting foreign currency exchange rates using the numerical solution of the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher effect; Price Puzzle; Singapore; interest rate; inflation; cointegration; impulse response function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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