IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lrc/larijb/v8y2018i8p1-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience

Author

Listed:
  • H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka

    (Assistant Lecturer, Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Peradeniya,Sri Lanka.)

  • J.G. Sri Ranjith

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.)

Abstract

Governments tend to borrow financial resources from domestic as well as external sector when its tax revenues are not sufficient to meet the required financial needs. In the Sri Lankan context, there has been a gradual increasing trend in the accumulation of public debt since the post liberalization phase. Herein, this ambience of public debt has caused to make congenial effects while leading to some unfavorable effects on the economy. Hence, this study examines the impact of public debt on private investment in Sri Lanka using the annual data from 1978-2015. The study follows some econometric steps respectively unit root test, Johansen co-integration test and finally employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to find out the long-run impact. Empirical findings of our study show the evidence for the presence of crowding-in effect of public debt on private investment in the long-run implying that government has diverted borrowing funds as spurring private sector. Further, real GDP also affects positively on private investment suggesting further expansion of the economy is inevitable. Hence, the policy compilation with regard to fiscal operations should be aimed at the well- managed borrowing for the purpose of boosting private investment further.

Suggested Citation

  • H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:lrc:larijb:v:8:y:2018:i:8:p:1-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://thejournalofbusiness.org/index.php/site/article/view/1122/686
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Slimani Salma & El Abbassi Idriss & Tounsi Said, 2016. "Threshold effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in developing countries," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(3), pages 24-37, June.
    2. OG Dayaratna-Banda Ph.D & A. A. S. Priyadarshanee, 2014. "Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 4(7), pages 100-108, July.
    3. Salma Slimani, 2016. "Threshold Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity in Developing Countries," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 20-37, March.
    4. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2014. "Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Analyzing the Effects of Government Spending on Private Investment in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(6), pages 617-630, December.
    5. Muhammad Mustapha Abdullahi & Nor Aznin Bt Abu Bakar & Sallahuddin B. Hassan, 2016. "Debt Overhang versus Crowding Out Effects: Understanding the Impact of External Debts on Capital Formation in Theory," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 271-278.
    6. Kirchner, Markus & Wijnbergen, Sweder van, 2016. "Fiscal deficits, financial fragility, and the effectiveness of government policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 51-68.
    7. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    8. Salma Slimani, 2016. "Threshold Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity in Developing Countries," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 6(3), pages 20-37, March.
    9. Junko Koeda, 2008. "A Debt Overhang Model for Low-Income Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 654-678, December.
    10. Hemantha Kumara & Nawalage S. Cooray, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: Is There Any Threshold Level for Pubic Debt?," Working Papers EMS_2013_22, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    11. OG Dayaratna-Banda Ph.D & A. A. S. Priyadarshanee, 2014. "Sustainability of Government Debt in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 4(7), pages 100-108, July.
    12. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2009. "Crowding Out Effect of Public Borrowing: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Vratislav Izák, 2014. "Private and Public Debt," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 4-21.
    14. Mohammed Ershad HUSSAIN & Mahfuzul HAQUE & Richard S. IGWIKE, 2015. "Relationship between Economic Growth and Debt: An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 262-275, June.
    15. Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary & Sabahat Anwar, 2000. "Foreign Debt, Dependency, and Economic Growth in South Asia," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 551-570.
    16. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng (Michael) Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of China’s Fiscal Expansion," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 129-181.
    17. Shah, Md. Mahmud Hasan & Pervin, Shahida, 2012. "External public debt and economic growth: empirical evidence from Bangladesh, 1974 to 2010," MPRA Paper 55407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Naeem Akram, 2013. "Empirical examination of debt and growth nexus in South Asian countries," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(2), pages 29-52, December.
    19. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Michael Song, 2016. "The Long Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion," NBER Working Papers 22801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charity I. Anoke & Stephen I. Odo, Ph.D & Bernard E. Nnabu, Ph.D, 2021. "Public Debt and Domestic Private Investment: A Crowding Effect in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(3), pages 01-08, March.
    2. Jato, Terungwa Paul Joseph & Nwankwo, Nneka, 2024. "Crowding-out Effect of Public Debt on Private Sector Credit in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 12(3), September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. H.R.A. Chamini Thilanka & J.G. Sri Ranjith, 2018. "The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment: Sri Lankan Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 8(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Wang, He & Yao, Yang & Zhou, Yue, 2022. "Markets price politicians: Evidence from China’s municipal bond markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Cheng, Yudan & Jia, Shanghui & Meng, Huan, 2022. "Fiscal policy choices of local governments in China: Land finance or local government debt?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 294-308.
    4. Chang Liu & Wei Xiong, 2018. "China's Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 25297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Yu, Li & Lyu, Zhuoyang & Duan, Hao, 2024. "Plugging the gap: Debt pressure and the rise of forfeiture revenues in local governments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Liu, Yan & Wu, Guowei & Xiong, Chen, 2024. "Countercyclical central government transfers incentivize local government overborrowing: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Guo, Di & Jiang, Kun & Xu, Chenggang & Yang, Xiyi, 2023. "Geographic clusters, regional productivity and resource reallocation across firms: Evidence from China," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    9. Liang, Quanxi & Huang, Jinlan & Liang, Mingjun & Li, Jingxiang, 2024. "Economic growth targets and bank risk exposure: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Walker, Thomas & Zhang, Xueying & Zhang, Aoran & Wang, Yulin, 2021. "Fact or fiction: Implicit government guarantees in China’s corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    11. Zhang, Min & Zhang, Yahong, 2022. "Monetary stimulus policy in China: The bank credit channel," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Deng, Jiapin & Liu, Qiao, 2024. "Good finance, bad finance, and resource misallocation: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Dechun Liu & Xinye Zheng & Yihua Yu, 2022. "Public Debt Competition in Local China: Evidence and Mechanism of Spatial Interactions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S2), pages 91-105, November.
    14. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2018. "The Financing of Local Government in the People’s Republic of China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," ADBI Working Papers 800, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    15. Wu, Fulong, 2022. "Land financialisation and the financing of urban development in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    16. Dong, Feng & Xu, Zhiwei, 2020. "Cycles of credit expansion and misallocation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    17. Yi Feng & Fulong Wu & Fangzhu Zhang, 2024. "Building state centrality through state selective financialization: Reconfiguring the land reserve system in China," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 56(3), pages 766-783, May.
    18. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    19. Min, Feng & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2022. "Measuring the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on domestic investment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-412.
    20. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Debt; Private Investment; Crowding out/in Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lrc:larijb:v:8:y:2018:i:8:p:1-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Al Hossain (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.thejournalofbusiness.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.